Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Marcell Ozuna

matchup for Gregory Soto

313th out of 436 (Worst 28%)

Gregory Soto

matchup for Marcell Ozuna

462nd out of 568 (Worst 19%)

Leans in favor of Ozuna

Marcell Ozuna has a 34.9% chance of reaching base vs Gregory Soto, which is 0.3% higher than Ozuna's typical expectations, and 2.2% higher than batters facing Soto.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	34.9%	19.8%	2.6%	3.5%	13.7%	15.1%	33.0%
Ozuna	-0.3	-3.1	-0.8	-1.9	-0.5	+2.9	+6.2
Soto	+2.2	-0.9	+0.4	+0.2	-1.5	+3.1	+3.9

Marcell Ozuna is worse vs left-handed pitching. Gregory Soto is left handed with a moderate release toward the first base side. Ozuna has a B grade vs this particular release point.

Gregory Soto throws a Sinker 53% of the time. Marcell Ozuna has an A grade against left-handed Sinkers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

Sinker (L)

53%

Slider (L)

32%

4-Seam (L)

14%

12% of Gregory Soto's pitches are classified as Weak Challenges, which is 3% higher than the MLB average. Marcell Ozuna has an A+ grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Weak Challenge 12%

+3%

Mid Challenge 14%

+2%

Strong Challenge 6%

+1%

Non-Competitive 13%

+1%

Edge Painter 17%

Fringe Miss 12%

Chaser 5%

Likely Ball 18%

-2%

Meatball 1%

-4%

53% of Gregory Soto's pitches are classified as Low Ride, which is 29% higher than the MLB average. Marcell Ozuna has an A grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Low Ride 53%

+29%

Extreme Fast Velo 30%

+29%

Extreme Break 37%

+22%

Fastball (L) 67%

+12%

15.8% of Marcell Ozuna's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 2.0% higher than the league average. Gregory Soto strikes out 17.3% of the batters he faces, which is 2.7% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

13%

Strikeout +2.0% +2.7% 3%

Walk +2.3% +3.3% 41%

In Play -4.3% -6.0% 39%

On Base +4.2% +2.6% 31%

Hit +1.9% -0.6% 14%

Single -0.6% -0.1% 13%

2B / 3B -0.3% 0.0% 3%

Home Run +2.7% -0.5%

31.3% of Marcell Ozuna's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 3.1% lower than the league average. Gregory Soto induces Standard Grounders at a 45.3% rate, which is 10.9% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt +0.1% +1.1% 34%

Standard Grounder -3.1% +10.9% 7%

Hard Grounder +1.2% -2.8% 14%

Low Screamer -1.4% -3.1% 9%

Rising Liner -0.7% -0.5% 4%

Maybe Homer +1.7% +0.4% 3%

Likely Homer +0.9% -0.4% 1%

No Doubter +1.5% -0.8% 20%

Routine Flyout -0.2% -3.7% 3%

Pop up +0.0% -1.1%

33.9% of Marcell Ozuna's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 9.6% higher than the league average. 22.6% of batted balls allowed by Gregory Soto are hit at above 100 mph, which is 1.7% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph -2.1% +0.9% 21%

75 to 86 mph -2.1% +0.5% 18%

87 to 93 mph -3.0% -1.6% 19%

94 to 99 mph -2.3% +1.9% 24%

Above 100 mph +9.6% -1.7%

12.0% of Marcell Ozuna's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 0.5% higher than the league average. 8.6% of batted balls allowed by Marcell Ozuna are hit at this angle, which is 2.8% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° -3.0% +9.0% 12%

-10 to 0° -0.4% +2.0% 8%

1 to 6° +1.2% -2.0% 18%

7 to 18° +0.2% -1.9% 15%

19 to 28° +0.8% -1.1% 11%

29 to 38° +0.5% -2.8% 7%

39 to 50° 0.0% -2.1% 8%

Above 50° +0.6% -1.2%

Marcell Ozuna has 4 plate appearances against Gregory Soto in the last 3 years. He is 2 for 3 with 2 doubles and a walk

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	4	3	2	0	2	0	0	1	0.667
Expected From Contact →			1.58	0.02	1.15	0.42			0.528

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2024-03-30	Groundout		21%	36%	42%
2023-10-12	Walk
2023-09-20	Double		3%		96%
2023-05-25	Double		91%	6%	3%

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

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