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Marcell Ozuna

matchup for Emilio Pagan

284th out of 436 (Worst 35%)

Emilio Pagan

matchup for Marcell Ozuna

453rd out of 568 (Worst 20%)

Leans in favor of Ozuna

Marcell Ozuna has a 31.7% chance of reaching base vs Emilio Pagan, which is 3.5% lower than Ozuna's typical expectations, and 1.2% higher than batters facing Pagan.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	31.7%	22.3%	3.4%	5.9%	13.1%	9.4%	32.3%
Ozuna	-3.5	-0.6	+0.0	+0.5	-1.1	-2.8	+5.5
Pagan	+1.2	-1.1	+0.3	+0.4	-1.8	+2.3	+3.2

Marcell Ozuna is better vs right-handed pitching. Emilio Pagan is right handed with a moderate release toward the third base side. Ozuna has an A- grade vs this particular release point.

Emilio Pagan throws a 4-seam fastball 59% of the time. Marcell Ozuna has an A+ grade against right-handed 4-seamers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

4-Seam (R)

59%

Cutter (R)

31%

Splitter (R)

15% of Emilio Pagan's pitches are classified as Mid Challenges, which is 4% higher than the MLB average. Marcell Ozuna has an A+ grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Mid Challenge 15%

+4%

Strong Challenge 8%

+3%

Fringe Miss 13%

+1%

Meatball 6%

+0%

Edge Painter 17%

+0%

Likely Ball 19%

Chaser 5%

-1%

Non-Competitive 10%

-3%

Weak Challenge 5%

-3%

91% of Emilio Pagan's pitches are classified as Fastball Pitches, which is 37% higher than the MLB average. Marcell Ozuna has an A+ grade against this type of pitch from right handers.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Fastball (R) 91%

+37%

High Ride 35%

+25%

Medium Break 40%

+20%

Fast Velo 32%

+17%

15.8% of Marcell Ozuna's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 2.0% higher than the league average. Emilio Pagan strikes out 20.6% of the batters he faces, which is 8.3% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

13%

Strikeout +2.0% +8.3% 3%

Walk +2.3% -1.6% 41%

In Play -4.3% -6.7% 39%

On Base +4.2% -7.5% 31%

Hit +1.9% -5.9% 14%

Single -0.6% -3.2% 13%

2B / 3B -0.3% -2.7% 3%

Home Run +2.7% +0.0%

31.3% of Marcell Ozuna's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 3.1% lower than the league average. Emilio Pagan induces Standard Grounders at a 23.6% rate, which is 10.9% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt +0.1% +0.0% 34%

Standard Grounder -3.1% -10.9% 7%

Hard Grounder +1.2% -1.0% 14%

Low Screamer -1.4% -2.1% 9%

Rising Liner -0.7% +1.1% 4%

Maybe Homer +1.7% +2.1% 3%

Likely Homer +0.9% +0.4% 1%

No Doubter +1.5% -0.2% 20%

Routine Flyout -0.2% +6.4% 3%

Pop up +0.0% +4.1%

33.9% of Marcell Ozuna's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 9.6% higher than the league average. 27.1% of batted balls allowed by Emilio Pagan are hit at above 100 mph, which is 2.8% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph -2.1% -1.7% 21%

75 to 86 mph -2.1% -4.3% 18%

87 to 93 mph -3.0% -2.5% 19%

94 to 99 mph -2.3% +5.7% 24%

Above 100 mph +9.6% +2.8%

12.0% of Marcell Ozuna's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 0.5% higher than the league average. 13.6% of batted balls allowed by Marcell Ozuna are hit at this angle, which is 2.1% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° -3.0% -5.5% 12%

-10 to 0° -0.4% -3.9% 8%

1 to 6° +1.2% -1.9% 18%

7 to 18° +0.2% +0.1% 15%

19 to 28° +0.8% +1.0% 11%

29 to 38° +0.5% +2.1% 7%

39 to 50° 0.0% +2.4% 8%

Above 50° +0.6% +5.7%

Marcell Ozuna has 1 plate appearance against Emilio Pagan in the last 3 years. He is 0 for 1 with a strikeout.

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	1	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
Expected From Contact →			0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00			0.000

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2024-09-17	Strikeout

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

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