Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Marcell Ozuna

matchup for Lucas Sims

298th out of 436 (Worst 32%)

Lucas Sims

matchup for Marcell Ozuna

278th out of 568 (Best 50%)

Strong advantage for Ozuna

Marcell Ozuna has a 37.2% chance of reaching base vs Lucas Sims, which is 2.0% higher than Ozuna's typical expectations, and 2.5% higher than batters facing Sims.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	37.2%	18.5%	3.0%	4.8%	10.8%	18.7%	25.9%
Ozuna	+2.0	-4.4	-0.4	-0.6	-3.4	+6.4	-1.0
Sims	+2.5	-1.8	-0.3	+0.0	-1.5	+4.2	+1.9

Marcell Ozuna is better vs right-handed pitching. Lucas Sims is right handed with an over-the-top delivery. Ozuna has an A grade vs this particular release point.

Lucas Sims throws a 4-seam fastball 39% of the time. Marcell Ozuna has an A+ grade against right-handed 4-seamers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

4-Seam (R)

39%

Slider (R)

32%

Curve (R)

17%

21% of Lucas Sims's pitches are classified as Likely Balls, which is 2% higher than the MLB average. Marcell Ozuna has a C grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Likely Ball 21%

+2%

Strong Challenge 7%

+2%

Chaser 7%

+1%

Mid Challenge 12%

+1%

Meatball 7%

+0%

Non-Competitive 13%

+0%

Fringe Miss 12%

Edge Painter 16%

-1%

Weak Challenge 4%

-4%

50% of Lucas Sims's pitches are classified as Breaking Pitches, which is 19% higher than the MLB average. Marcell Ozuna has a B grade against this type of pitch from right handers.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Breaking (R) 50%

+19%

Large Break 20%

+15%

Very Slow Velo 25%

+11%

15.8% of Marcell Ozuna's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 2.0% higher than the league average. Lucas Sims strikes out 19.9% of the batters he faces, which is 5.9% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

13%

Strikeout +2.0% +5.9% 3%

Walk +2.3% +3.3% 41%

In Play -4.3% -9.2% 39%

On Base +4.2% -5.7% 31%

Hit +1.9% -9.0% 14%

Single -0.6% -4.1% 13%

2B / 3B -0.3% -3.9% 3%

Home Run +2.7% -0.9%

31.3% of Marcell Ozuna's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 3.1% lower than the league average. Lucas Sims induces Standard Grounders at a 19.3% rate, which is 15.1% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt +0.1% +0.8% 34%

Standard Grounder -3.1% -15.1% 7%

Hard Grounder +1.2% -0.9% 14%

Low Screamer -1.4% +6.8% 9%

Rising Liner -0.7% -2.2% 4%

Maybe Homer +1.7% +0.5% 3%

Likely Homer +0.9% +1.3% 1%

No Doubter +1.5% +0.5% 20%

Routine Flyout -0.2% +3.6% 3%

Pop up +0.0% +4.8%

33.9% of Marcell Ozuna's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 9.6% higher than the league average. 18.1% of batted balls allowed by Lucas Sims are hit at above 100 mph, which is 6.2% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph -2.1% +5.5% 21%

75 to 86 mph -2.1% +0.4% 18%

87 to 93 mph -3.0% +1.8% 19%

94 to 99 mph -2.3% -1.5% 24%

Above 100 mph +9.6% -6.2%

12.0% of Marcell Ozuna's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 0.5% higher than the league average. 14.5% of batted balls allowed by Marcell Ozuna are hit at this angle, which is 3.1% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° -3.0% -5.8% 12%

-10 to 0° -0.4% -6.2% 8%

1 to 6° +1.2% -0.8% 18%

7 to 18° +0.2% -3.8% 15%

19 to 28° +0.8% +0.6% 11%

29 to 38° +0.5% +3.1% 7%

39 to 50° 0.0% +3.5% 8%

Above 50° +0.6% +9.4%

Marcell Ozuna has 2 plate appearances against Lucas Sims in the last 3 years. He is 0 for 2 with a strikeout.

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	2	2	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
Expected From Contact →			0.02	0.00	0.00	0.01			0.009

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2024-07-24	Flyout			1%	98%
2023-06-23	Strikeout

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

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