Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Marcell Ozuna

matchup for Jorge Lopez

416th out of 436 (Worst 5%)

Jorge Lopez

matchup for Marcell Ozuna

280th out of 568 (Best 50%)

Strong advantage for Ozuna

Marcell Ozuna has a 35.8% chance of reaching base vs Jorge Lopez, which is 0.6% higher than Ozuna's typical expectations, and 4.9% higher than batters facing Lopez.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	35.8%	24.4%	3.2%	5.2%	16.0%	11.4%	25.7%
Ozuna	+0.6	+1.5	-0.1	-0.2	+1.8	-0.8	-1.1
Lopez	+4.9	+1.8	+0.6	+0.4	+0.8	+3.1	+0.7

Marcell Ozuna is better vs right-handed pitching. Jorge Lopez is right handed with a moderate release toward the third base side. Ozuna has an A- grade vs this particular release point.

Jorge Lopez throws a Sinker 26% of the time. Marcell Ozuna has an A+ grade against right-handed Sinkers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

Sinker (R)

26%

Kn-Curve (R)

25%

4-Seam (R)

21%

Changeup (R)

12%

Slider (R)

14% of Jorge Lopez's pitches are classified as Weak Challenges, which is 6% higher than the MLB average. Marcell Ozuna has an A+ grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Weak Challenge 14%

+6%

Edge Painter 18%

+1%

Non-Competitive 13%

+0%

Strong Challenge 5%

+0%

Fringe Miss 12%

Chaser 6%

-1%

Mid Challenge 10%

-1%

Likely Ball 18%

-1%

Meatball 3%

-3%

35% of Jorge Lopez's pitches are classified as Extreme Break Toward Third Base, which is 20% higher than the MLB average. Marcell Ozuna has an A grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Extreme Break 35%

+20%

Extreme Drop 21%

+16%

15.8% of Marcell Ozuna's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 2.0% higher than the league average. Jorge Lopez strikes out 14.8% of the batters he faces, which is 0.4% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

13%

Strikeout +2.0% +0.4% 3%

Walk +2.3% -0.1% 41%

In Play -4.3% -0.3% 39%

On Base +4.2% +1.8% 31%

Hit +1.9% +1.9% 14%

Single -0.6% +1.0% 13%

2B / 3B -0.3% +1.0% 3%

Home Run +2.7% -0.1%

31.3% of Marcell Ozuna's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 3.1% lower than the league average. Jorge Lopez induces Standard Grounders at a 42.5% rate, which is 8.0% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt +0.1% -0.1% 34%

Standard Grounder -3.1% +8.0% 7%

Hard Grounder +1.2% +1.3% 14%

Low Screamer -1.4% -4.8% 9%

Rising Liner -0.7% -1.4% 4%

Maybe Homer +1.7% -0.1% 3%

Likely Homer +0.9% +1.5% 1%

No Doubter +1.5% -0.2% 20%

Routine Flyout -0.2% -4.5% 3%

Pop up +0.0% +0.2%

33.9% of Marcell Ozuna's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 9.6% higher than the league average. 25.3% of batted balls allowed by Jorge Lopez are hit at above 100 mph, which is 1.0% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph -2.1% -0.6% 21%

75 to 86 mph -2.1% -0.3% 18%

87 to 93 mph -3.0% +0.0% 19%

94 to 99 mph -2.3% -0.2% 24%

Above 100 mph +9.6% +1.0%

12.0% of Marcell Ozuna's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 0.5% higher than the league average. 12.0% of batted balls allowed by Marcell Ozuna are hit at this angle, which is 0.6% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° -3.0% +9.2% 12%

-10 to 0° -0.4% +0.1% 8%

1 to 6° +1.2% +1.1% 18%

7 to 18° +0.2% -5.4% 15%

19 to 28° +0.8% -0.7% 11%

29 to 38° +0.5% +0.6% 7%

39 to 50° 0.0% -2.6% 8%

Above 50° +0.6% -2.3%

Marcell Ozuna has 2 plate appearances against Jorge Lopez in the last 3 years. He is 1 for 2 with a double and

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	2	2	1	0	1	0	0	0	0.500
Expected From Contact →			1.63	1.28	0.34	0.00			0.814

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2024-05-11	Double	59%	31%		10%
2024-04-08	Flyout	69%	3%		27%

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

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