Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Marcell Ozuna

matchup for Luke Weaver

349th out of 436 (Worst 20%)

Luke Weaver

matchup for Marcell Ozuna

529th out of 568 (Worst 7%)

Moderate advantage for Weaver

Marcell Ozuna has a 30.5% chance of reaching base vs Luke Weaver, which is 4.7% lower than Ozuna's typical expectations, and 4.0% higher than batters facing Weaver.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	30.5%	15.6%	3.3%	3.9%	8.4%	14.9%	38.2%
Ozuna	-4.7	-7.3	-0.1	-1.5	-5.8	+2.7	+11.3
Weaver	+4.0	-0.6	+0.3	0.0	-0.8	+4.5	+3.6

Marcell Ozuna is better vs right-handed pitching. Luke Weaver is right handed with a moderate release toward the third base side. Ozuna has an A- grade vs this particular release point.

Luke Weaver throws a 4-seam fastball 53% of the time. Marcell Ozuna has an A+ grade against right-handed 4-seamers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

4-Seam (R)

53%

Changeup (R)

25%

Cutter (R)

12%

Curve (R)

8% of Luke Weaver's pitches are classified as Meatballs, which is 2% higher than the MLB average. Marcell Ozuna has an A+ grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Meatball 8%

+2%

Fringe Miss 14%

+1%

Mid Challenge 12%

+1%

Edge Painter 18%

+1%

Likely Ball 20%

+0%

Strong Challenge 5%

+0%

Chaser 6%

-1%

Non-Competitive 12%

-1%

Weak Challenge 6%

-3%

40% of Luke Weaver's pitches are classified as Medium Break Toward Third Base, which is 21% higher than the MLB average. Marcell Ozuna has an A grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Medium Break 40%

+21%

Offspeed (R) 25%

+14%

Fastball (R) 66%

+12%

Medium Ride 24%

+10%

15.8% of Marcell Ozuna's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 2.0% higher than the league average. Luke Weaver strikes out 21.1% of the batters he faces, which is 7.6% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

13%

Strikeout +2.0% +7.6% 3%

Walk +2.3% -0.8% 41%

In Play -4.3% -6.8% 39%

On Base +4.2% -3.0% 31%

Hit +1.9% -2.1% 14%

Single -0.6% -1.2% 13%

2B / 3B -0.3% -1.0% 3%

Home Run +2.7% 0.0%

31.3% of Marcell Ozuna's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 3.1% lower than the league average. Luke Weaver induces Standard Grounders at a 30.4% rate, which is 4.0% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt +0.1% +0.3% 34%

Standard Grounder -3.1% -4.0% 7%

Hard Grounder +1.2% -1.9% 14%

Low Screamer -1.4% -0.6% 9%

Rising Liner -0.7% +0.7% 4%

Maybe Homer +1.7% +0.6% 3%

Likely Homer +0.9% +1.2% 1%

No Doubter +1.5% +0.4% 20%

Routine Flyout -0.2% +2.2% 3%

Pop up +0.0% +1.0%

33.9% of Marcell Ozuna's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 9.6% higher than the league average. 26.7% of batted balls allowed by Luke Weaver are hit at above 100 mph, which is 2.4% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph -2.1% -0.5% 21%

75 to 86 mph -2.1% -1.9% 18%

87 to 93 mph -3.0% -0.3% 19%

94 to 99 mph -2.3% +0.3% 24%

Above 100 mph +9.6% +2.4%

12.0% of Marcell Ozuna's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 0.5% higher than the league average. 12.9% of batted balls allowed by Marcell Ozuna are hit at this angle, which is 1.4% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° -3.0% -1.5% 12%

-10 to 0° -0.4% -3.1% 8%

1 to 6° +1.2% -0.7% 18%

7 to 18° +0.2% +1.3% 15%

19 to 28° +0.8% +1.0% 11%

29 to 38° +0.5% +1.4% 7%

39 to 50° 0.0% 0.0% 8%

Above 50° +0.6% +1.7%

Marcell Ozuna has 3 plate appearances against Luke Weaver in the last 3 years. He is 1 for 3 with a strikeout.

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	3	3	1	0	0	1	1	0	0.333
Expected From Contact →			1.10	0.00	0.14	0.95			0.366

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2023-06-23	Single		14%	42%	44%
2023-06-23	Strikeout
2022-07-29	Groundout			54%	46%

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

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