Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Marcell Ozuna

matchup for Jason Adam

371st out of 436 (Worst 15%)

Jason Adam

matchup for Marcell Ozuna

509th out of 568 (Worst 11%)

Moderate advantage for Adam

Marcell Ozuna has a 29.9% chance of reaching base vs Jason Adam, which is 5.2% lower than Ozuna's typical expectations, and 2.5% higher than batters facing Adam.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	29.9%	20.5%	3.1%	5.2%	12.2%	9.5%	34.4%
Ozuna	-5.2	-2.5	-0.2	-0.2	-2.0	-2.8	+7.5
Adam	+2.5	+1.2	+0.8	+0.7	-0.3	+1.3	+1.7

Marcell Ozuna is better vs right-handed pitching. Jason Adam is right handed with an over-the-top delivery. Ozuna has an A grade vs this particular release point.

Jason Adam throws a 4-seam fastball 42% of the time. Marcell Ozuna has an A+ grade against right-handed 4-seamers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

4-Seam (R)

42%

Slider (R)

26%

Changeup (R)

24%

Curve (R)

7% of Jason Adam's pitches are classified as Strong Challenges, which is 2% higher than the MLB average. Marcell Ozuna has an F grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Strong Challenge 7%

+2%

Non-Competitive 14%

+1%

Mid Challenge 12%

+1%

Chaser 7%

+1%

Likely Ball 20%

+1%

Fringe Miss 12%

-1%

Edge Painter 15%

-2%

Weak Challenge 7%

-2%

Meatball 4%

-2%

24% of Jason Adam's pitches are classified as Offspeed Pitches, which is 13% higher than the MLB average. Marcell Ozuna has a B grade against this type of pitch from right handers.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Offspeed (R) 24%

+13%

Medium Break 31%

+12%

Fast Velo 26%

+11%

15.8% of Marcell Ozuna's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 2.0% higher than the league average. Jason Adam strikes out 21.0% of the batters he faces, which is 8.4% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

13%

Strikeout +2.0% +8.4% 3%

Walk +2.3% -0.2% 41%

In Play -4.3% -8.2% 39%

On Base +4.2% -5.9% 31%

Hit +1.9% -5.7% 14%

Single -0.6% -2.7% 13%

2B / 3B -0.3% -2.3% 3%

Home Run +2.7% -0.8%

31.3% of Marcell Ozuna's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 3.1% lower than the league average. Jason Adam induces Standard Grounders at a 37.6% rate, which is 3.2% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt +0.1% -0.2% 34%

Standard Grounder -3.1% +3.2% 7%

Hard Grounder +1.2% +0.3% 14%

Low Screamer -1.4% -2.2% 9%

Rising Liner -0.7% -0.3% 4%

Maybe Homer +1.7% +0.1% 3%

Likely Homer +0.9% +0.2% 1%

No Doubter +1.5% -0.1% 20%

Routine Flyout -0.2% -2.8% 3%

Pop up +0.0% +1.8%

33.9% of Marcell Ozuna's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 9.6% higher than the league average. 20.7% of batted balls allowed by Jason Adam are hit at above 100 mph, which is 3.6% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph -2.1% +1.8% 21%

75 to 86 mph -2.1% +2.5% 18%

87 to 93 mph -3.0% +0.1% 19%

94 to 99 mph -2.3% -0.8% 24%

Above 100 mph +9.6% -3.6%

12.0% of Marcell Ozuna's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 0.5% higher than the league average. 13.3% of batted balls allowed by Marcell Ozuna are hit at this angle, which is 1.9% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° -3.0% +0.3% 12%

-10 to 0° -0.4% +2.8% 8%

1 to 6° +1.2% -1.5% 18%

7 to 18° +0.2% -0.1% 15%

19 to 28° +0.8% -5.2% 11%

29 to 38° +0.5% +1.9% 7%

39 to 50° 0.0% +0.6% 8%

Above 50° +0.6% +1.2%

Marcell Ozuna has 4 plate appearances against Jason Adam in the last 3 years. He is 0 for 4 with 3 strikeouts.

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	4	4	0	0	0	0	3	0	0.000
Expected From Contact →			0.02	0.00	0.00	0.02			0.005

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2024-10-02	Strikeout
2024-10-01	Strikeout
2024-06-16	Groundout			2%	98%
2024-06-14	Strikeout

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

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