Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Marcell Ozuna

matchup for Sonny Gray

403rd out of 436 (Worst 8%)

Sonny Gray

matchup for Marcell Ozuna

417th out of 568 (Worst 27%)

Moderate advantage for Ozuna

Marcell Ozuna has a 33.2% chance of reaching base vs Sonny Gray, which is 1.9% lower than Ozuna's typical expectations, and 4.6% higher than batters facing Gray.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	33.2%	22.7%	3.0%	6.0%	13.7%	10.5%	31.5%
Ozuna	-1.9	-0.2	-0.3	+0.6	-0.5	-1.7	+4.6
Gray	+4.6	+1.3	+0.5	+0.7	+0.1	+3.3	+2.0

Marcell Ozuna is better vs right-handed pitching. Sonny Gray is right handed with an over-the-top delivery. Ozuna has an A grade vs this particular release point.

Sonny Gray throws a 4-seam fastball 26% of the time. Marcell Ozuna has an A+ grade against right-handed 4-seamers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

4-Seam (R)

26%

Sinker (R)

22%

Curve (R)

19%

Slider (R)

18%

Cutter (R)

11%

12% of Sonny Gray's pitches are classified as Weak Challenges, which is 4% higher than the MLB average. Marcell Ozuna has an A+ grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Weak Challenge 12%

+4%

Likely Ball 21%

+2%

Chaser 7%

+1%

Edge Painter 17%

+0%

Strong Challenge 5%

Fringe Miss 12%

-1%

Mid Challenge 10%

-1%

Meatball 4%

-2%

Non-Competitive 10%

-2%

33% of Sonny Gray's pitches are classified as Medium Fast Velocity, which is 17% higher than the MLB average. Marcell Ozuna has an A grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Medium Fast Velo 33%

+17%

Large Break 21%

+16%

Extreme Drop 21%

+16%

15.8% of Marcell Ozuna's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 2.0% higher than the league average. Sonny Gray strikes out 20.1% of the batters he faces, which is 7.3% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

13%

Strikeout +2.0% +7.3% 3%

Walk +2.3% -1.3% 41%

In Play -4.3% -6.0% 39%

On Base +4.2% -3.5% 31%

Hit +1.9% -2.2% 14%

Single -0.6% -0.7% 13%

2B / 3B -0.3% -0.4% 3%

Home Run +2.7% -1.1%

31.3% of Marcell Ozuna's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 3.1% lower than the league average. Sonny Gray induces Standard Grounders at a 36.7% rate, which is 2.2% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt +0.1% +0.3% 34%

Standard Grounder -3.1% +2.2% 7%

Hard Grounder +1.2% -0.2% 14%

Low Screamer -1.4% -1.7% 9%

Rising Liner -0.7% +2.3% 4%

Maybe Homer +1.7% -0.3% 3%

Likely Homer +0.9% -0.2% 1%

No Doubter +1.5% -0.3% 20%

Routine Flyout -0.2% -1.1% 3%

Pop up +0.0% -1.1%

33.9% of Marcell Ozuna's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 9.6% higher than the league average. 23.4% of batted balls allowed by Sonny Gray are hit at above 100 mph, which is 0.9% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph -2.1% -0.3% 21%

75 to 86 mph -2.1% -0.8% 18%

87 to 93 mph -3.0% +1.6% 19%

94 to 99 mph -2.3% +0.4% 24%

Above 100 mph +9.6% -0.9%

12.0% of Marcell Ozuna's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 0.5% higher than the league average. 9.8% of batted balls allowed by Marcell Ozuna are hit at this angle, which is 1.6% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° -3.0% +2.7% 12%

-10 to 0° -0.4% -0.5% 8%

1 to 6° +1.2% +0.1% 18%

7 to 18° +0.2% +1.5% 15%

19 to 28° +0.8% +1.1% 11%

29 to 38° +0.5% -1.6% 7%

39 to 50° 0.0% -1.3% 8%

Above 50° +0.6% -1.9%

Marcell Ozuna has 6 plate appearances against Sonny Gray in the last 3 years. He is 3 for 6 with 3 home runs and

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	6	6	3	3	0	0	2	0	0.500
Expected From Contact →			3.84	2.95	0.04	0.85			0.639

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2024-07-20	Home Run	99%
2024-07-20	Home Run	99%
2024-07-20	Strikeout
2023-06-26	Home Run	98%	1%
2023-06-26	Lineout			84%	15%
2023-06-26	Strikeout

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

Matchup Machine
Log In Subscribe

Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

Matchup Machine Log InSubscribe

Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

Matchup Machine
Log In Subscribe