Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Marcell Ozuna

matchup for Craig Kimbrel

344th out of 436 (Worst 21%)

Craig Kimbrel

matchup for Marcell Ozuna

187th out of 568 (Best 34%)

Extreme advantage for Ozuna

Marcell Ozuna has a 39.3% chance of reaching base vs Craig Kimbrel, which is 4.2% higher than Ozuna's typical expectations, and 3.4% higher than batters facing Kimbrel.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	39.3%	19.7%	3.8%	5.4%	10.6%	19.7%	33.1%
Ozuna	+4.2	-3.2	+0.4	0.0	-3.6	+7.4	+6.3
Kimbrel	+3.4	-0.8	+0.2	+0.2	-1.3	+4.3	+2.9

Marcell Ozuna is better vs right-handed pitching. Craig Kimbrel is right handed with an extreme release toward the third base side. Ozuna has a B grade vs this particular release point.

Craig Kimbrel throws a 4-seam fastball 66% of the time. Marcell Ozuna has an A+ grade against right-handed 4-seamers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

4-Seam (R)

66%

Kn-Curve (R)

34%

12% of Craig Kimbrel's pitches are classified as Strong Challenges, which is 7% higher than the MLB average. Marcell Ozuna has an F grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Strong Challenge 12%

+7%

Likely Ball 22%

+2%

Mid Challenge 12%

+1%

Fringe Miss 13%

+1%

Edge Painter 17%

+0%

Chaser 6%

Non-Competitive 11%

-2%

Weak Challenge 5%

-4%

Meatball 2%

-4%

47% of Craig Kimbrel's pitches are classified as Large Break Toward Third Base, which is 25% higher than the MLB average. Marcell Ozuna has an A+ grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Large Break 47%

+25%

Very Fast Velo 28%

+20%

Medium Ride 29%

+15%

Fastball (R) 66%

+12%

15.8% of Marcell Ozuna's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 2.0% higher than the league average. Craig Kimbrel strikes out 23.9% of the batters he faces, which is 13.6% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

13%

Strikeout +2.0% +13.6% 3%

Walk +2.3% +4.4% 41%

In Play -4.3% -17.9% 39%

On Base +4.2% -3.6% 31%

Hit +1.9% -8.0% 14%

Single -0.6% -3.9% 13%

2B / 3B -0.3% -3.6% 3%

Home Run +2.7% -0.5%

31.3% of Marcell Ozuna's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 3.1% lower than the league average. Craig Kimbrel induces Standard Grounders at a 26.4% rate, which is 8.0% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt +0.1% -0.5% 34%

Standard Grounder -3.1% -8.0% 7%

Hard Grounder +1.2% -1.5% 14%

Low Screamer -1.4% +0.9% 9%

Rising Liner -0.7% +1.1% 4%

Maybe Homer +1.7% +2.3% 3%

Likely Homer +0.9% +0.6% 1%

No Doubter +1.5% -0.4% 20%

Routine Flyout -0.2% +3.8% 3%

Pop up +0.0% +1.7%

33.9% of Marcell Ozuna's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 9.6% higher than the league average. 26.6% of batted balls allowed by Craig Kimbrel are hit at above 100 mph, which is 2.3% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph -2.1% -5.1% 21%

75 to 86 mph -2.1% -0.5% 18%

87 to 93 mph -3.0% -1.9% 19%

94 to 99 mph -2.3% +5.2% 24%

Above 100 mph +9.6% +2.3%

12.0% of Marcell Ozuna's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 0.5% higher than the league average. 11.2% of batted balls allowed by Marcell Ozuna are hit at this angle, which is 0.2% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° -3.0% -4.1% 12%

-10 to 0° -0.4% -0.9% 8%

1 to 6° +1.2% -3.1% 18%

7 to 18° +0.2% -1.2% 15%

19 to 28° +0.8% +2.6% 11%

29 to 38° +0.5% -0.2% 7%

39 to 50° 0.0% +1.2% 8%

Above 50° +0.6% +5.8%

Marcell Ozuna has 3 plate appearances against Craig Kimbrel in the last 3 years. He is 0 for 3 with a strikeout.

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	3	3	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
Expected From Contact →			0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00			0.002

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2023-10-07	Pop Out				100%
2023-05-27	Strikeout
2022-06-24	Pop Out				100%

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

Matchup Machine
Log In Subscribe

Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

Matchup Machine Log InSubscribe

Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

Matchup Machine
Log In Subscribe