Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Marcell Ozuna

matchup for Lance Lynn

410th out of 436 (Worst 6%)

Lance Lynn

matchup for Marcell Ozuna

144th out of 568 (Best 26%)

Extreme advantage for Ozuna

Marcell Ozuna has a 36.6% chance of reaching base vs Lance Lynn, which is 1.4% higher than Ozuna's typical expectations, and 3.8% higher than batters facing Lynn.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	36.6%	25.2%	3.7%	6.5%	15.0%	11.4%	22.1%
Ozuna	+1.4	+2.3	+0.3	+1.1	+0.8	-0.9	-4.8
Lynn	+3.8	+1.1	+0.6	+0.7	-0.2	+2.7	+2.2

Marcell Ozuna is better vs right-handed pitching. Lance Lynn is right handed with an extreme release toward the third base side. Ozuna has a B grade vs this particular release point.

Lance Lynn throws a 4-seam fastball 44% of the time. Marcell Ozuna has an A+ grade against right-handed 4-seamers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

4-Seam (R)

44%

Cutter (R)

25%

Sinker (R)

16%

Curve (R)

Changeup (R)

7% of Lance Lynn's pitches are classified as Meatballs, which is 1% higher than the MLB average. Marcell Ozuna has an A+ grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Meatball 7%

+1%

Edge Painter 18%

+1%

Chaser 7%

+0%

Mid Challenge 11%

+0%

Likely Ball 20%

+0%

Strong Challenge 5%

Non-Competitive 13%

Fringe Miss 12%

Weak Challenge 7%

-1%

85% of Lance Lynn's pitches are classified as Fastball Pitches, which is 32% higher than the MLB average. Marcell Ozuna has an A+ grade against this type of pitch from right handers.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Fastball (R) 85%

+32%

Medium Fast Velo 30%

+15%

Low Ride 36%

+12%

Small Break 19%

+10%

15.8% of Marcell Ozuna's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 2.0% higher than the league average. Lance Lynn strikes out 15.5% of the batters he faces, which is 1.4% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

13%

Strikeout +2.0% +1.4% 3%

Walk +2.3% -1.5% 41%

In Play -4.3% +0.2% 39%

On Base +4.2% -2.1% 31%

Hit +1.9% -0.6% 14%

Single -0.6% -0.1% 13%

2B / 3B -0.3% -0.1% 3%

Home Run +2.7% -0.4%

31.3% of Marcell Ozuna's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 3.1% lower than the league average. Lance Lynn induces Standard Grounders at a 32.3% rate, which is 2.1% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt +0.1% -0.4% 34%

Standard Grounder -3.1% -2.1% 7%

Hard Grounder +1.2% -1.8% 14%

Low Screamer -1.4% +2.5% 9%

Rising Liner -0.7% -0.3% 4%

Maybe Homer +1.7% -0.4% 3%

Likely Homer +0.9% +0.7% 1%

No Doubter +1.5% -0.3% 20%

Routine Flyout -0.2% +0.7% 3%

Pop up +0.0% +1.4%

33.9% of Marcell Ozuna's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 9.6% higher than the league average. 24.0% of batted balls allowed by Lance Lynn are hit at above 100 mph, which is 0.3% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph -2.1% +0.1% 21%

75 to 86 mph -2.1% +2.0% 18%

87 to 93 mph -3.0% -0.4% 19%

94 to 99 mph -2.3% -1.4% 24%

Above 100 mph +9.6% -0.3%

12.0% of Marcell Ozuna's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 0.5% higher than the league average. 10.7% of batted balls allowed by Marcell Ozuna are hit at this angle, which is 0.7% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° -3.0% -1.9% 12%

-10 to 0° -0.4% -0.4% 8%

1 to 6° +1.2% -2.9% 18%

7 to 18° +0.2% +1.9% 15%

19 to 28° +0.8% +0.4% 11%

29 to 38° +0.5% -0.7% 7%

39 to 50° 0.0% +1.3% 8%

Above 50° +0.6% +2.3%

Marcell Ozuna has 9 plate appearances against Lance Lynn in the last 3 years. He is 3 for 7 with 2 walks

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	9	7	3	0	0	3	1	2	0.429
Expected From Contact →			3.51	0.45	0.62	2.43			0.501

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2024-06-24	Flyout	1%	36%	1%	61%
2024-06-24	Flyout	44%	4%		52%
2024-06-24	Single			69%	30%
2023-08-31	Single		21%	75%	3%
2023-08-31	Groundout			9%	91%
2023-08-31	Walk
2023-07-15	Walk
2023-07-15	Single			88%	12%
2023-07-15	Strikeout

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

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On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

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