Matchup Machine

Charlie Blackmon

matchup for Yu Darvish

318th out of 436 (Worst 27%)

Yu Darvish

matchup for C. Blackmon

405th out of 568 (Worst 29%)

Moderate advantage for Blackmon

Charlie Blackmon has a 30.5% chance of reaching base vs Yu Darvish, which is 2.8% lower than Blackmon's typical expectations, and 1.2% higher than batters facing Darvish.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	30.5%	23.4%	3.0%	5.4%	15.0%	7.1%	19.5%
Blackmon	-2.8	-0.5	+0.2	+0.1	-0.8	-2.3	+0.1
Darvish	+1.2	+1.2	-0.3	-0.1	+1.6	+0.1	-3.9

Charlie Blackmon is about the same vs right-handed pitching as he is against left. Yu Darvish is right handed with a horizontal release toward the third base side. Blackmon has a B grade vs this particular release point.

Yu Darvish throws a Cutter 26% of the time. Charlie Blackmon has a C grade against right-handed Cutters

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

Cutter (R)

26%

Slider (R)

26%

4-Seam (R)

21%

Sinker (R)

12%

Splitter (R)

Curve (R)

14% of Yu Darvish's pitches are classified as Mid Challenges, which is 3% higher than the MLB average. Charlie Blackmon has a C grade against this type of pitch.

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Mid Challenge 14%

+3%

Strong Challenge 8%

+3%

Edge Painter 18%

+1%

Weak Challenge 8%

+0%

Chaser 6%

Fringe Miss 12%

Meatball 5%

-1%

Non-Competitive 11%

-2%

Likely Ball 17%

-2%

28% of Yu Darvish's pitches are classified as Medium Drop, which is 15% higher than the MLB average. Charlie Blackmon has a B+ grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Medium Drop 28%

+15%

Small Break 20%

+9%

10.9% of Charlie Blackmon's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 6.3% lower than the league average. Yu Darvish strikes out 20.3% of the batters he faces, which is 6.7% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Strikeout -6.3% +6.7% 4%

Walk +0.6% -1.6% 37%

In Play +5.7% -5.1% 39%

On Base +3.0% -4.8% 31%

Hit +2.4% -3.2% 14%

Single +1.2% -1.6% 13%

2B / 3B +1.4% -1.2% 3%

Home Run -0.1% -0.5%

31.5% of Charlie Blackmon's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 3.0% lower than the league average. Yu Darvish induces Standard Grounders at a 34.2% rate, which is 0.2% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt +0.2% +0.1% 34%

Standard Grounder -3.0% -0.2% 7%

Hard Grounder -0.2% -0.6% 14%

Low Screamer +1.4% -0.9% 9%

Rising Liner +0.6% -1.0% 4%

Maybe Homer -0.3% +0.5% 3%

Likely Homer +1.0% -1.1% 1%

No Doubter +0.3% +1.0% 20%

Routine Flyout -0.7% +1.7% 3%

Pop up +0.6% +0.4%

22.7% of Charlie Blackmon's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 1.6% lower than the league average. 21.5% of batted balls allowed by Yu Darvish are hit at above 100 mph, which is 2.8% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph +3.2% -1.1% 21%

75 to 86 mph +0.2% +2.0% 18%

87 to 93 mph -0.5% +1.0% 19%

94 to 99 mph -1.3% +0.8% 24%

Above 100 mph -1.6% -2.8%

11.3% of Charlie Blackmon's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 0.2% lower than the league average. 12.4% of batted balls allowed by Charlie Blackmon are hit at this angle, which is 1.0% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° -2.5% -1.1% 12%

-10 to 0° -1.1% -2.4% 8%

1 to 6° +0.7% +0.5% 18%

7 to 18° +0.6% -0.3% 15%

19 to 28° +1.5% -0.5% 11%

29 to 38° -0.2% +1.0% 7%

39 to 50° +0.3% 0.0% 8%

Above 50° +0.6% +2.9%

Charlie Blackmon has 9 plate appearances against Yu Darvish in the last 3 years. He is 0 for 7 with 2 walks

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	9	7	0	0	0	0	4	2	0.000
Expected From Contact →			0.91	0.01	0.43	0.47			0.130

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2023-06-09	Walk
2023-06-09	GIDP			10%	90%
2023-06-09	Flyout		2%	35%	62%
2022-09-24	Walk
2022-09-24	Strikeout
2022-09-24	Flyout	1%	41%	1%	57%
2022-08-02	Strikeout
2022-08-02	Strikeout
2022-08-02	Strikeout

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

On the Way to the Plate

Contact and Outcomes

History