Sim Accuracy

Ballpark Pal simulations generate detailed projections of every game. The tables below give insight into how the sims have related to actual results. Differences can be due to randomness or model oversights. Naturally, smaller samples are associated with larger differences. Models are generally left alone, but sometimes tweaked to adjust for clear differences that occur during the season.

Median Dif = the median game-to-game difference.
Abs = the median game-to-game difference, ignoring the direction of the error (absolute value).

Overall
Simulated runs have been 3.3% higher than actual (202 runs over 713 games)
Totals Difference % Dif Median Dif
Actual Sim # % Away Home Median Abs
Runs6,1216,3232023%2%5%0.533.04
Hits11,51811,6891711%0%3%0.273.26
1B7,6077,675681%-2%4%0.122.51
2B/3B2,4532,486331%-2%5%0.351.36
HR1,4581,529715%14%-3%0.221.11
BB5,2895,5852966%5%6%1.332.25
K11,95812,0641061%1%1%0.272.67
Sim is lower than actuals    Sim is higher than actuals
Team Park Games Runs Sim Dif % Dif Med Abs Hits Sim Dif % Dif Med Abs 1B Sim Dif % Dif Med Abs 2B/3B Sim Dif % Dif Med Abs HR Sim Dif % Dif Med Abs BB Sim Dif % Dif Med Abs K Sim Dif % Dif Med Abs
ANAAngel Stadium22225189-36-16%-0.343.76398343-55-14%-1.103.80259223-36-14%-1.053.098668-18-21%0.111.125352-1-1%0.311.36173169-4-2%0.482.14400391-9-2%-0.273.50
BALOriole Park27232247157%1.453.23435461266%1.503.982663023614%1.183.199810133%0.701.317158-13-19%0.251.171632034024%2.312.68441477368%0.702.68
BOSFenway Park2319419732%0.352.77365391267%0.053.42243258156%0.222.4082961417%0.111.574037-3-7%0.061.08159170117%1.832.47419403-16-4%0.892.75
CHAGuaranteed Rate Fld241782123419%1.283.223523974513%0.454.112312623113%0.922.947380710%0.321.134855715%0.601.0616717142%1.102.0537838241%-1.022.35
CLEProgressive Field2218819242%1.823.17345357124%1.033.662132352210%0.112.408078-2-2%0.211.305244-8-15%0.661.111571721510%1.232.34352343-9-2%0.632.35
KCAKauffman Stadium26229226-3-1%-0.233.23459440-19-4%-0.213.0929230083%0.482.5112197-24-20%0.021.184643-3-7%-0.200.9818819352%1.101.95369401329%1.082.85
OAKOakland Coliseum23218189-29-13%0.112.90387364-23-6%0.333.12253242-11-4%0.462.069581-14-15%0.371.46394237%0.151.01207184-23-11%0.102.2139840462%-0.452.57
TBATropicana Field27237226-11-5%-0.473.01430422-8-2%0.373.04289264-25-9%-0.022.3575962128%0.431.616662-4-6%0.050.94199188-11-5%1.132.10455490358%0.823.22
TORRogers Centre221832032011%2.013.25366360-6-2%0.973.01237226-11-5%-0.272.72828200%0.641.724752511%0.401.241451843927%1.432.37361375144%0.682.53
ARIChase Field25251250-1-1%1.003.18450442-8-2%0.743.79289283-6-2%-0.332.85115105-10-9%0.241.424654818%0.491.251882082011%1.732.433684033510%0.272.78
CHNWrigley Field23183193106%0.513.17352365134%-0.153.3624224421%-0.102.416977812%0.651.47414436%0.201.031641831911%1.492.23413380-33-8%0.392.37
COLCoors Field191742032917%-0.493.7735636372%-0.774.00256233-23-9%-1.222.8671861521%0.321.3929441551%0.551.07141140-1-1%1.152.01310288-22-7%-0.322.10
LANDodger Stadium27234244104%0.372.37410428184%0.423.03263274114%0.632.2474851115%0.071.377369-4-5%0.321.252012212010%1.302.09448471235%0.562.72
PITPNC Park211591781912%0.402.1832933782%0.742.7521222194%0.012.38737968%0.121.334436-8-17%0.390.931511691812%1.492.6834735582%1.112.72
MILAmerican Family Fld21207185-22-11%0.203.19363330-33-9%0.642.51244211-33-13%-0.092.17656835%0.821.505450-4-7%0.281.24172171-1-1%1.151.92365359-6-2%-0.742.12
SEAT-Mobile Park251662114527%0.872.783303875717%0.423.172192513214%0.372.5962771524%0.121.3049601122%0.481.281481944631%1.802.19497455-42-8%-1.222.56
HOUMinute Maid Park272422723012%0.383.12464454-10-2%-0.572.96300278-22-7%-0.462.589710144%0.431.356775812%0.521.13230243136%1.162.10417456399%1.642.48
DETComerica Park23183197148%-0.072.98354376226%0.543.1024625262%0.302.7068811319%0.431.40404226%-0.081.111511722114%1.332.04396384-12-3%-0.522.54
SFNOracle Park2520321184%1.362.60418414-4-1%0.353.01285284-10%0.282.449688-8-8%0.571.453741411%-0.120.791731982514%1.952.143684043610%0.832.75
CINGreat American BP2219320294%0.582.9233934672%1.073.56217214-3-1%0.552.287874-4-5%0.541.3444571330%0.301.04177189127%1.412.31377398216%0.632.67
SDNPetco Park25224223-10%1.042.99388410226%0.973.822392763715%0.922.418381-2-3%0.431.216653-13-20%0.220.961742002615%1.662.35428408-20-5%0.512.52
PHICitizens Bank Park27257228-29-11%0.322.35442429-13-3%0.392.17302275-27-9%0.322.16889689%0.501.505258612%0.221.0619620153%1.232.2048248200%-0.453.08
SLNBusch Stadium21184176-8-4%-0.283.36352349-3-1%-1.053.0423424173%-1.012.357470-4-5%-0.181.424437-7-16%0.040.8714715253%1.042.24336324-12-4%0.512.79
NYNCiti Field241672003320%1.863.263203826219%1.362.652202604018%0.822.326370711%0.601.3537521540%0.351.17205190-15-7%1.161.96412403-9-2%-0.082.65
WASNationals Park18160149-11-7%0.112.69307291-16-5%-0.543.52211197-14-6%-0.922.966859-9-13%0.251.512835723%0.211.00149136-13-9%1.162.16294285-9-3%1.472.55
MINTarget Field2216617153%0.583.21340338-2-1%-0.392.86211229188%0.621.738468-16-19%0.111.044541-4-9%-0.261.111401632316%1.402.04428412-16-4%-0.722.87
NYAYankee Stadium221652003521%1.312.603283623410%1.122.962202482813%1.292.625966712%0.601.214948-1-3%-0.071.321771972011%1.682.3036437172%0.902.50
MIALoanDepot Park27273240-33-12%0.473.12477456-21-4%-0.452.98321304-17-5%-0.762.2710996-13-12%0.271.394756920%0.351.05240200-40-17%1.472.8446447061%0.952.93
ATLTruist Park24200217179%-0.222.41423403-20-5%0.053.17299276-23-8%-0.302.808176-5-6%0.421.134352920%-0.081.071641831911%1.562.1539839910%-1.052.46
TEXGlobe Life Field251872334624%-0.373.613574095215%-0.313.312322653314%0.452.3173831014%0.071.165260816%-0.211.23198210126%1.002.1641242192%0.172.61
SDNEstadio Alfredo H.H.22635935%4.198.8638491129%2.497.972725-2-7%0.472.164117184%2.263.35713680%2.793.65161603%1.706.90313214%-4.144.69
SDNGocheok Sky Dome23320-13-38%-6.329.104435-9-20%-4.4210.723522-13-38%-6.676.6778117%0.772.81253166%1.661.662917-12-43%-4.234.233038826%3.863.86
Team Games Runs Sim Dif % Dif Med Abs Hits Sim Dif % Dif Med Abs 1B Sim Dif % Dif Med Abs 2B/3B Sim Dif % Dif Med Abs HR Sim Dif % Dif Med Abs BB Sim Dif % Dif Med Abs K Sim Dif % Dif Med Abs Wins Sim Dif % Dif
ARI4822623152%0.431.91398420225%0.422.10259281228%0.361.849589-6-6%0.160.984450614%0.180.9018919342%0.591.4537037772%0.121.632223.71.7+7%
ATL4420120984%-0.241.88384373-11-3%-0.482.13246244-2-1%0.131.729275-17-19%-0.010.934654818%0.020.71162172106%0.871.30387355-32-8%-0.021.912723.9-3.1-11%
BAL45223204-19-9%0.002.4237638592%0.132.482202523215%0.391.738782-5-6%-0.050.926951-18-27%0.210.921441581410%0.861.53366387216%0.091.972923.3-5.7-19%
BOS48211202-9-4%0.352.35403392-11-3%0.152.02247259125%0.341.8110488-16-15%0.091.005245-7-13%0.190.79180176-4-2%1.001.53468430-38-8%-0.191.752424.2.2+0%
CHC48212204-8-4%0.352.10362381195%-0.152.06234250167%0.061.71808556%0.510.954847-1-3%0.070.82207191-16-8%0.861.59419412-7-2%-0.171.872623.6-2.4-9%
CHW481351834835%1.012.093373774012%0.312.472242532913%0.461.84798011%0.390.8834441031%0.220.841321481612%0.951.30391412215%0.372.141420.06.0+42%
CIN471922152312%0.302.213303724213%0.172.112082362813%0.081.73798234%0.550.9843551227%0.210.721742063218%0.581.50437421-16-4%0.082.111924.55.5+28%
CLE48229202-27-12%0.631.98376404287%0.562.182432753213%0.321.92828645%0.410.965143-8-15%0.110.78192159-33-17%0.731.6835735810%1.011.803122.1-8.9-28%
COL461822042212%0.822.1638338741%0.172.42258243-15-6%0.131.90889133%0.301.0237531643%0.360.8114415064%0.671.21440431-9-2%-0.331.811517.22.2+14%
DET461902081810%0.652.22367384175%0.812.13241257166%0.571.668781-6-7%0.450.963947820%0.150.871681861811%0.891.67405392-13-3%-0.322.042324.91.9+8%
HOU482202462612%0.382.61438423-15-3%-0.032.25298261-37-12%-0.241.7982941215%0.140.8958681016%0.250.79175190159%0.411.44322352309%0.571.722125.54.5+21%
KC48222216-6-3%0.772.23396408123%0.602.27254276229%0.211.779786-11-12%0.140.83454613%0.210.871541782415%1.011.35334357237%0.141.942925.0-4.0-13%
LAA48210207-3-1%0.432.10405380-25-6%-0.112.16268243-25-9%-0.111.65818100%0.320.645655-1-1%0.160.701551853019%0.831.36421445246%0.302.021922.53.5+18%
LAD50258246-12-4%-0.312.28439421-18-4%-0.112.19278267-11-4%0.091.769590-5-6%0.000.846664-2-4%0.220.76229221-8-3%0.151.45418414-4-1%0.021.983328.8-4.2-12%
MIA491832021911%0.992.08379409308%0.122.06270283135%-0.341.8468791116%0.480.854147615%0.120.841431571410%1.261.72371390195%0.442.031622.06.0+37%
MIL47235194-41-18%0.512.25413363-50-12%0.292.10270238-32-12%-0.181.498478-6-7%0.510.785947-12-20%0.270.87196189-7-4%0.611.43426411-15-4%0.011.892722.2-4.8-17%
MIN47204200-4-2%0.422.2536537051%0.422.262182442612%0.381.799977-22-23%0.300.87484913%0.040.891671902314%0.451.2441641710%-0.421.782424.8.8+3%
NYM4720020111%0.582.3038138541%0.732.51262257-5-2%0.571.86747400%0.520.944554921%0.150.86174165-9-5%0.681.41366393277%0.291.922123.22.2+10%
NYY4823223863%0.692.13413400-13-3%0.542.37273259-14-5%0.501.7173841115%0.520.826757-10-15%0.080.892092372813%0.791.623574145716%0.722.013225.4-6.6-20%
OAK491751921710%1.012.08355370154%0.632.132212432210%0.321.41767934%0.510.755848-10-17%0.070.87179190116%0.721.5847247641%0.071.971920.91.9+9%
PHI48254214-40-16%0.171.88417386-31-7%0.102.02283250-33-12%-0.111.61808334%0.090.8154540-1%0.180.76210197-13-6%0.531.4140340741%-0.232.233427.0-7.0-20%
PIT481782184022%1.002.25367390236%0.732.2825225752%0.371.9370831319%0.400.85454949%0.200.891882162815%1.041.69451425-26-6%0.081.922225.33.3+15%
SD5022722921%1.062.25433432-10%0.332.38305301-4-1%0.381.58778257%0.320.855149-2-5%0.190.891751921710%0.511.45370365-5-1%0.371.792525.8.8+3%
SEA481802113117%0.541.78357370134%0.112.21242232-10-4%-0.131.6463791625%0.270.765259714%0.260.691692043521%0.901.54486469-17-4%-0.631.862625.3-.7-2%
SF481942142010%0.642.0639539831%0.442.32271264-7-3%0.091.54828868%0.560.884246410%0.150.801691982917%0.731.46378408308%0.401.812325.82.8+12%
STL471802032313%0.832.08362379175%0.272.1724625373%-0.021.71777923%0.140.743946719%0.110.8718919453%0.481.55407391-16-4%0.291.832123.02.0+9%
TB49197215189%-0.012.1739339741%-0.012.25281255-26-9%-0.091.6971881724%0.390.9041541331%0.180.8317818353%0.651.44446418-28-6%0.042.072525.5.5+2%
TEX4822022773%0.262.29406398-8-2%-0.192.15282256-26-9%-0.101.6574861216%0.210.855056611%0.090.821812042313%0.731.53370394246%0.411.842425.21.2+5%
TOR451692124325%0.801.973413753410%0.322.242202432311%-0.041.848281-1-2%0.170.9639511231%0.210.801701942414%0.731.573253593410%0.421.792123.12.1+10%
WAS46182178-4-2%0.461.78347359124%0.151.94233243104%0.051.55757611%0.370.99394124%0.150.84187162-25-14%0.561.3837938451%0.371.722119.6-1.4-6%
Team Games Runs Sim Dif % Dif Med Abs Hits Sim Dif % Dif Med Abs 1B Sim Dif % Dif Med Abs 2B/3B Sim Dif % Dif Med Abs HR Sim Dif % Dif Med Abs BB Sim Dif % Dif Med Abs K Sim Dif % Dif Med Abs Wins Sim Dif % Dif
ARI4822923563%0.722.29425422-3-1%0.292.6426527162%0.421.8811097-13-11%0.211.00505449%0.190.811651902515%0.781.44360382226%0.232.052624-1-7.000000%
ATL441621923019%0.541.9635336293%0.462.16260246-14-5%0.111.6050702040%0.570.82434637%0.190.921501712114%0.611.45373403308%-0.241.801720319.000000%
BAL451661993320%0.892.163353743912%0.722.502152442914%0.291.947785810%0.420.95434525%0.160.751491732416%0.911.4939239531%-0.081.991621535.000000%
BOS481792012212%0.151.93364393298%0.042.01264261-3-1%0.051.6258903255%0.240.95424200%0.040.811511813020%0.851.66413426133%0.041.9024230-1.000000%
CHC4820420731%0.802.16393385-8-2%0.111.94269257-12-4%0.041.55788022%0.390.86464824%0.360.851781951710%0.761.41418411-7-2%0.291.962224211.000000%
CHW48236222-14-6%0.242.0639439621%0.052.45242263219%0.341.878781-6-6%0.490.736552-13-20%0.160.7620020000%0.401.58392356-36-9%-0.501.963428-6-18.000000%
CIN4719820242%0.131.89365363-2-1%0.141.81235232-3-1%0.041.627975-4-5%0.190.935156510%0.150.86181193126%0.531.46406422164%0.581.812822-5-20.000000%
CLE481662225634%0.782.18363389267%0.262.122222512913%0.231.669784-13-13%0.220.8844541023%0.310.931702114124%0.591.45432400-32-7%0.511.921725853.000000%
COL46253266135%0.322.2944545051%-0.072.30324294-30-9%-0.601.78741012736%0.471.064755817%0.130.7919720253%0.261.33295292-3-1%0.201.763128-2-7.000000%
DET4617918895%0.252.09348369216%0.632.28250244-6-2%0.471.6458802238%0.490.854045512%0.040.871391561712%0.691.2738939231%-0.111.822321-1-8.000000%
HOU4822723142%0.791.98407386-21-5%-0.022.17271242-29-11%-0.241.93818434%0.510.775560510%0.280.84215232178%0.861.573994373810%0.281.942722-4-17.000000%
KC481662084225%0.202.0938639592%0.172.3625826462%0.471.848786-1-2%0.130.964146513%0.070.811631852213%0.811.59385395103%0.152.081923421.000000%
LAA48239221-18-8%0.232.2338539051%-0.042.1724925231%0.111.61828312%0.380.88545511%0.160.84205202-3-1%0.141.42405401-4-1%0.011.912925-3-12.000000%
LAD501692104124%1.042.383463914513%0.662.042252573214%0.651.847179811%0.410.845055510%0.220.861661932716%0.871.43421453328%0.531.981721425.000000%
MIA49267229-38-14%0.372.00433415-18-4%0.082.0827627931%0.301.5210584-21-20%-0.070.86525200%0.170.87232209-23-10%0.831.57415436215%0.261.953327-6-18.000000%
MIL4719920673%0.832.01390382-8-2%0.712.07272256-16-6%0.251.7561751423%0.600.775751-6-11%0.130.80189184-5-2%0.881.72375395205%0.071.742024424.000000%
MIN47213187-26-12%0.581.99401370-31-8%0.202.18264243-21-8%0.041.668079-1-1%0.400.845748-9-15%0.050.79143156139%0.861.3744144100%0.071.8923220-4.000000%
NYM47213204-9-4%0.342.14358377195%0.121.9724625262%0.041.387776-1-1%0.350.7535491440%0.200.80236197-39-16%0.521.53420394-26-6%0.121.982623-2-8.000000%
NYY481532216845%1.192.203373976018%0.782.182162624621%0.411.78788023%0.320.8343551227%0.300.821852052011%1.071.5741341300%-0.011.911622641.000000%
OAK49238224-14-6%-0.502.24417416-10%-0.542.43264281176%0.091.7510887-21-19%-0.201.01454836%0.010.8419620153%0.041.67381375-6-1%0.001.713028-1-6.000000%
PHI481711881710%0.811.88358372144%0.302.2223824352%0.191.738280-2-3%0.440.9638491128%0.210.6715416285%0.761.45445440-5-1%0.172.101421750.000000%
PIT4820220200%0.411.9038239192%0.382.19243255125%0.361.79858945%0.140.965446-8-14%0.130.89177171-6-3%0.431.28408386-22-5%0.091.932622-3-13.000000%
SD5021622263%0.872.1439440062%0.142.2325625931%0.131.81828534%0.410.88565601%0.270.811742012716%0.731.4643844682%0.301.5125240-3.000000%
SEA481791971810%0.682.243423824012%0.362.292172503315%0.201.66787800%0.350.764754715%0.210.931451591410%0.861.52413408-5-1%-0.052.08222203.000000%
SF48225195-30-13%0.351.92419387-32-8%-0.072.15278262-16-6%-0.171.659981-18-18%-0.010.83424312%0.110.83178175-3-2%0.971.48386402164%0.231.982522-2-11.000000%
STL47225208-17-8%0.091.86414400-14-3%-0.472.1126626710%-0.101.879183-8-8%-0.170.935750-7-12%0.100.8515315964%0.911.48389355-34-9%0.102.002624-2-8.000000%
TB49228205-23-10%0.472.15410389-21-5%0.422.14266244-22-8%0.261.66808778%0.410.946458-6-9%0.190.86166162-4-2%0.881.34419443246%-0.021.6624230-2.000000%
TEX4821321521%0.782.48361388277%0.452.28232249178%0.321.74818323%0.410.714855714%0.240.84212191-21-10%0.621.39409405-4-1%0.171.752422-1-5.000000%
TOR45210204-6-3%1.202.55387373-14-4%0.752.42245238-7-3%0.221.55838300%0.480.915952-7-12%0.270.76165175106%1.021.54375397226%0.281.972421-2-9.000000%
WAS46196211158%0.182.10406385-21-5%-0.262.15279258-21-8%-0.261.729479-15-16%0.330.9333491647%0.090.771551913623%0.831.4835136093%0.301.66252615.000000%
Team Batter Games DK Points Sim Dif % Dif FD Points Sim Dif % Dif Runs Sim Dif RBIs Sim Dif Hits Sim Dif 1B Sim Dif 2B/3B Sim Dif HR Sim Dif BB Sim Dif K Sim Dif PA Sim Dif SB Sim Dif