Sim Accuracy

Ballpark Pal simulations generate detailed projections of every game. The tables below give insight into how the sims have related to actual results. Differences can be due to randomness or model oversights. Naturally, smaller samples are associated with larger differences. Models are generally left alone, but sometimes tweaked to adjust for clear differences that occur during the season.

Median Dif = the median game-to-game difference.
Abs = the median game-to-game difference, ignoring the direction of the error (absolute value).

Overall
Simulated runs have been 2.4% higher than actual (48 runs over 219 games)
Totals Difference % Dif Median Dif
Actual Sim # % Away Home Median Abs
Runs1,9742,022482%-3%9%0.413.10
Hits3,6063,624181%-2%3%0.143.30
1B2,4062,331-75-3%-6%0%-0.042.54
2B/3B744805618%0%17%0.371.38
HR456489337%15%0%0.221.12
BB1,7441,822784%1%9%1.202.21
K3,7793,9091303%4%2%0.322.65
Sim is lower than actuals    Sim is higher than actuals
Team Park Games Runs Sim Dif % Dif Med Abs Hits Sim Dif % Dif Med Abs 1B Sim Dif % Dif Med Abs 2B/3B Sim Dif % Dif Med Abs HR Sim Dif % Dif Med Abs BB Sim Dif % Dif Med Abs K Sim Dif % Dif Med Abs
ANAAngel Stadium65550-5-9%-0.123.7610191-10-10%-0.804.037160-11-16%-0.523.201417324%0.311.141614-2-15%0.391.40474925%0.482.1810911566%-0.152.85
BALOriole Park88476-8-9%1.363.4713613821%1.363.97878922%0.413.192832415%0.831.252117-4-20%0.371.1746662043%2.212.6013814575%0.632.87
BOSFenway Park54944-5-10%0.132.80838523%-0.203.295655-1-2%-0.062.271622638%-0.091.44118-3-26%-0.071.103140929%1.652.379493-1-1%1.032.24
CHAGuaranteed Rate Fld749692041%1.223.15921202831%0.554.0358761831%0.792.831926734%0.311.131519425%0.601.17525759%1.222.0912913011%-1.262.89
CLEProgressive Field5434638%1.863.30838300%0.863.19505448%0.022.212319-4-17%0.211.40109-1-5%0.821.215044-6-12%1.172.32767711%0.752.46
KCAKauffman Stadium10818767%-0.433.32173166-7-4%-0.353.29113112-1-1%0.382.314338-5-11%0.141.301716-1-5%-0.210.98777812%1.101.901491651611%0.932.85
OAKOakland Coliseum964781422%0.112.80148146-2-1%0.332.689994-5-5%0.391.774134-7-18%0.441.4981810124%0.131.077572-3-4%0.122.25177169-8-5%-0.642.62
TBATropicana Field9778257%-0.473.0013914785%0.473.469587-8-8%0.072.6422361462%0.401.62222317%0.081.127866-12-16%1.111.851501691912%0.823.21
TORRogers Centre5444625%1.833.339482-12-13%0.932.685851-7-12%-0.282.502319-4-16%0.891.731311-2-12%0.341.093642617%0.632.279989-10-10%0.642.95
ARIChase Field9919322%1.033.1815815800%0.743.7310798-9-8%-0.332.863239723%0.401.401921211%0.501.2564801625%1.732.381281542620%0.262.66
CHNWrigley Field66656-10-14%0.293.29102100-2-2%-0.353.446965-4-6%-0.272.77232301%0.601.461011113%0.191.16545623%1.402.1010598-7-6%0.782.55
COLCoors Field66170914%-0.563.6611312076%-0.983.99767600%-1.222.912529418%0.311.441214220%0.501.055247-5-9%1.222.1711389-24-22%-0.231.99
LANDodger Stadium88076-4-5%0.412.4612812800%-0.043.347978-1-1%0.632.242327419%0.071.382623-3-12%0.281.245967813%1.022.03155145-10-6%0.472.63
PITPNC Park53745822%0.192.198482-2-2%0.822.835853-5-9%-0.102.441720317%0.171.319902%0.530.9626431767%1.512.4578891114%1.302.93
MILAmerican Family Fld55043-7-13%1.103.248177-4-5%0.752.515648-8-14%0.072.071117652%0.861.481412-2-12%0.250.984440-4-9%0.981.9088991113%-0.742.12
SEAT-Mobile Park959822338%0.512.721271461915%-0.133.31919322%0.212.6021311046%0.011.291523852%0.521.2651712040%1.532.19169165-4-2%-1.182.49
HOUMinute Maid Park9831011821%0.213.17163157-6-3%-0.693.0811192-19-17%-0.692.833137618%0.441.432128735%0.561.10869156%1.142.191321542216%1.562.40
DETComerica Park65246-6-11%-0.322.98879034%0.412.995461713%0.283.00202000%0.211.39139-4-27%-0.161.114946-3-6%1.241.97123114-9-7%-0.592.48
SFNOracle Park638491128%1.322.628796910%0.382.95676700%0.452.121620426%0.661.44495121%-0.100.8533501752%1.992.16771002330%0.802.38
CINGreat American BP99684-12-13%0.483.02157140-17-11%0.683.579886-12-12%0.182.413732-5-13%0.601.51222200%0.151.037584913%1.382.32156169138%0.572.41
SDNPetco Park1010891-17-16%0.973.26168164-4-2%0.623.6710210755%0.552.403836-2-5%0.341.152821-7-26%0.291.088582-3-3%1.552.25175171-4-2%0.602.50
PHICitizens Bank Park98179-2-3%0.372.38149143-6-4%0.792.1310089-11-11%0.372.123033311%0.511.56192129%0.241.146270814%1.152.07184172-12-7%-0.923.10
SLNBusch Stadium64652613%-0.303.349910122%-1.212.897069-1-1%-1.572.271621529%-0.011.431311-2-14%0.040.823945616%1.112.279594-1-1%0.562.71
NYNCiti Field8636969%1.683.3612413176%0.922.479389-4-4%0.152.301625955%0.701.341517214%0.291.176764-3-4%1.202.0313614375%0.462.50
WASNationals Park6475036%0.212.52939522%-0.153.56636411%-0.883.062220-2-10%0.351.54811338%0.100.995849-9-15%1.162.169810244%1.642.62
MINTarget Field530421241%1.163.2466781218%-0.102.9741521126%0.591.771216433%0.391.061310-3-20%-0.311.103741412%1.202.0011698-18-16%-0.652.75
NYAYankee Stadium64957816%1.312.64821022024%1.373.0153711834%1.502.65181800%0.541.241113215%-0.071.286558-7-11%1.462.06881071921%1.072.44
MIALoanDepot Park98986-3-3%0.912.9015315632%-0.242.8910010111%-0.692.203835-3-9%0.231.441521641%0.371.088670-16-18%1.612.95161172117%1.032.93
ATLTruist Park68058-22-27%-0.452.40132104-28-21%-0.253.319070-20-22%-0.352.952821-7-26%0.311.2114140-3%-0.191.07454948%1.182.17931051213%-1.092.46
TEXGlobe Life Field10899566%-0.813.6116016332%-0.913.32106102-4-4%0.012.36343401%0.001.172026631%-0.341.248685-1-2%0.882.021581792114%0.212.59
SDNGocheok Sky Dome23320-13-38%-6.329.104435-9-20%-4.4210.723522-13-38%-6.676.6778117%0.772.81253166%1.661.662917-12-43%-4.234.233038826%3.863.86
Team Games Runs Sim Dif % Dif Med Abs Hits Sim Dif % Dif Med Abs 1B Sim Dif % Dif Med Abs 2B/3B Sim Dif % Dif Med Abs HR Sim Dif % Dif Med Abs BB Sim Dif % Dif Med Abs K Sim Dif % Dif Med Abs Wins Sim Dif % Dif
ARI158381-2-2%0.331.8413714032%0.142.229592-3-4%0.261.842532727%0.280.981716-1-4%0.160.90656723%0.591.461021211919%0.121.6277.9.9+12%
ATL138166-15-19%-0.411.91142115-27-19%-0.622.188473-11-13%0.111.814325-18-42%-0.040.901517211%-0.100.704552715%0.881.30111104-7-6%0.111.9187.3-.7-8%
BAL147564-11-14%-0.062.4411612155%0.282.4669801115%0.291.762928-1-4%-0.070.961814-4-23%0.320.9044541022%0.791.541151271210%0.091.9287.1-.9-11%
BOS156766-1-2%0.352.3611912565%0.122.188281-1-1%0.251.792028839%0.140.991716-1-7%0.200.775957-2-4%0.971.48154139-15-10%0.111.7587.4-.6-7%
CHC147965-14-17%0.252.1510911898%-0.262.226977812%-0.111.732326314%0.510.921714-3-16%0.100.837059-11-16%0.861.5411111544%-0.121.8387.1-.9-11%
CHW1430592998%1.062.10871142731%0.412.6553742139%0.471.8926260-2%0.340.96815783%0.250.864350717%1.081.461201351512%0.312.2025.93.9+195%
CIN147667-9-12%0.082.08114111-3-3%0.102.076268610%-0.101.563726-11-29%0.480.98151618%0.220.7257681118%0.541.51141128-13-9%0.062.0487.7-.3-3%
CLE147261-11-16%0.711.96123120-3-2%0.482.298381-2-2%0.181.92272700%0.210.961312-1-5%0.250.836048-12-21%0.721.68107102-5-5%1.031.8196.3-2.7-30%
COL15697345%0.811.98134130-4-3%0.182.048480-4-5%0.121.843533-2-7%0.281.021518321%0.360.79535636%0.691.21149141-8-6%-0.391.8345.81.8+44%
DET1448661838%0.772.231041191515%0.792.11758057%0.481.721825741%0.490.961114327%0.150.875461714%0.821.67139123-16-11%-0.512.1188.0.00%
HOU1672831115%0.312.61156140-16-10%-0.082.4710584-21-20%-0.181.84323313%0.120.871923418%0.250.86636746%0.321.421061221615%0.571.6857.92.9+58%
KC158170-11-14%0.772.31132130-2-2%0.642.62868822%0.131.77272927%0.440.861913-6-30%0.200.885460611%1.031.3711212198%-0.151.99108.1-1.9-19%
LAA146361-2-3%0.662.06114109-5-5%-0.192.087968-11-14%-0.061.532025527%0.410.64151502%0.200.685261917%0.801.331251421714%0.302.0276.5-.5-7%
LAD168883-5-6%-0.362.30149136-13-9%-0.322.119583-12-12%-0.021.77303000%-0.010.852423-1-5%0.170.72717323%0.141.44162141-21-13%0.051.84109.9-.1-1%
MIA1553671427%1.062.111031312827%0.112.067887912%-0.581.9014271394%0.580.871116547%0.150.87485023%1.221.7211912344%0.372.0437.14.1+136%
MIL138753-34-39%0.512.2513599-36-27%0.291.919064-26-28%-0.101.452421-3-11%0.510.792113-8-38%0.280.915554-1-1%0.591.431141251110%0.201.90105.9-4.1-40%
MIN134653715%0.422.2780971722%0.582.2647631635%0.471.80202114%0.440.91131303%0.030.946053-7-11%0.201.22139127-12-8%-0.581.8166.0.00%
NYM146762-5-7%0.582.33120114-6-5%0.822.568676-10-12%0.571.891722531%0.590.911716-1-4%0.110.915856-2-3%0.711.381011252423%0.291.9867.01.0+16%
NYY157281913%0.832.1312212754%0.592.048279-3-3%0.481.632328523%0.530.771720315%0.180.88838522%0.701.681131412825%0.702.05128.1-3.9-32%
OAK1537592259%1.012.08991121313%0.702.07667158%0.281.351925630%0.560.801415110%0.120.875057714%0.671.53161157-4-3%0.152.0866.3.3+5%
PHI1554661223%0.441.8711612043%0.181.988976-13-14%-0.071.65122715124%0.100.871517211%0.200.72626200%0.561.43138130-8-6%-0.422.2988.3.3+3%
PIT157671-5-6%0.702.22141123-18-12%0.622.0510080-20-20%0.161.922827-1-5%0.300.851317429%0.200.927671-5-7%0.901.6814514721%0.311.90107.6-2.4-24%
SD168772-15-17%1.002.41139136-3-2%0.362.27899345%0.371.552827-1-2%0.320.852215-7-32%0.160.885864610%0.411.4612012332%0.461.8588.2.2+2%
SEA1546692350%0.421.801011171616%0.112.187470-4-5%-0.131.5515261176%0.220.771220870%0.300.6952651325%0.741.50157152-5-3%-0.661.8068.02.0+33%
SF15646622%0.562.18120119-1-1%0.342.528176-5-6%0.101.612427311%0.560.90151617%0.210.825663713%0.541.431171432623%0.381.8267.61.6+26%
STL15606447%0.822.0811711921%0.072.097877-1-1%-0.131.6826260-1%0.130.751316321%0.090.905461714%0.481.51129139107%0.401.8776.4-.6-8%
TB1559731424%-0.082.1712312854%-0.072.278980-9-10%-0.051.792330731%0.270.911118763%0.180.8350601021%0.711.35131127-4-3%0.332.1788.2.2+2%
TEX158173-8-10%-0.012.30138119-19-14%-0.352.109672-24-25%-0.271.662926-3-9%-0.100.881321860%0.110.797268-4-5%0.621.461071362927%0.411.8687.8-.2-2%
TOR1553742139%0.711.911101291917%0.222.2270841419%-0.061.75262829%0.200.981417321%0.190.80666934%0.601.5511712586%0.281.8177.7.7+10%
WAS144854612%0.261.6910610711%0.151.77707112%0.031.4824240-1%0.390.98121204%0.150.845452-2-4%0.631.41117127109%0.421.7465.7-.3-4%
Team Games Runs Sim Dif % Dif Med Abs Hits Sim Dif % Dif Med Abs 1B Sim Dif % Dif Med Abs 2B/3B Sim Dif % Dif Med Abs HR Sim Dif % Dif Med Abs BB Sim Dif % Dif Med Abs K Sim Dif % Dif Med Abs Wins Sim Dif % Dif
ARI1567771015%0.762.34134133-1-1%0.192.618881-7-8%0.311.86323313%0.231.001419534%0.220.8244621841%0.731.4512613154%0.002.04870-12.000000%
ATL136557-8-13%0.101.94111105-6-5%0.422.178469-15-17%0.121.601422856%0.600.84131419%0.180.94495124%0.551.421011363535%-0.372.1855013.000000%
BAL14626424%0.932.1411511833%0.702.637776-1-1%0.122.012129838%0.340.951713-4-24%0.160.7736592365%0.921.38129126-3-2%-0.182.1166015.000000%
BOS1556661018%0.041.9011312076%-0.142.038175-6-7%0.031.7018291162%0.130.961416211%0.150.9049631428%0.761.6014814911%0.031.907708.000000%
CHC146764-3-5%0.722.13114112-2-1%0.111.957573-2-2%0.041.602625-1-6%0.480.871314110%0.370.885864611%0.731.34136126-10-7%0.201.9066016.000000%
CHW14717100%0.312.0311712365%0.342.41788134%0.261.812026632%0.540.741916-3-18%0.250.716562-3-5%0.361.55115107-8-7%-0.442.02128-3-32.000000%
CIN146260-2-2%0.102.05109106-3-2%0.101.877565-10-13%0.021.641924528%0.310.931517212%0.180.86556059%0.521.37126136108%0.451.816605.000000%
CLE1444672352%0.732.1810211199%0.182.126170914%0.071.573425-9-26%0.210.8871710138%0.310.95666823%0.511.43130129-1-1%0.891.9357253.000000%
COL159889-9-9%0.262.30154148-6-4%-0.182.2110997-12-11%-0.591.782635935%0.391.031917-2-12%0.060.797271-1-1%0.231.3210394-9-9%0.241.76119-1-17.000000%
DET14555501%0.182.05971081111%0.632.496470610%0.681.811623747%0.470.851714-3-18%0.030.895950-9-15%0.651.2512513497%-0.081.856600.000000%
HOU168685-1-2%0.902.02142132-10-7%0.202.2010281-21-21%-0.271.99282915%0.480.7712221080%0.330.807987811%0.861.661151442925%0.281.93118-2-27.000000%
KC1545652044%-0.122.0612312300%-0.022.208281-1-2%0.461.773229-3-10%0.060.97914552%0.090.865359612%0.771.671121311917%0.322.0956137.000000%
LAA147165-6-8%0.162.3811011776%-0.182.27717657%0.051.592225316%0.350.891715-2-9%0.190.865159815%0.071.3212012665%0.021.887707.000000%
LAD167564-11-14%0.612.3311412065%0.452.18747734%0.251.892125421%0.430.851917-2-10%0.230.87606447%0.841.4215316074%0.471.946601.000000%
MIA158573-12-14%0.371.98137127-10-8%0.052.04788467%0.301.574226-16-38%-0.090.8617170-1%0.170.888371-12-14%0.841.601241462218%0.271.95127-4-34.000000%
MIL13545847%0.831.9110210422%0.891.966967-2-2%0.351.721720319%0.600.79161600%0.150.8240531331%0.951.691101261615%0.071.69374136.000000%
MIN13525759%0.812.0310210755%0.362.13666935%0.071.591924526%0.540.881714-3-19%0.060.76474811%0.641.37140121-19-14%0.051.807700.000000%
NYM146662-4-5%0.332.25118115-3-3%0.001.968976-13-14%-0.141.372024419%0.400.74915664%0.200.786959-10-14%0.631.56132123-9-7%0.212.0387-1-13.000000%
NYY1548732553%1.112.331091292019%0.662.3073851216%0.341.79262715%0.330.871017773%0.320.79646623%1.031.4811512498%0.031.92363129.000000%
OAK156369610%-0.532.19131127-4-3%-0.692.40838523%-0.171.804028-12-30%-0.191.02814677%0.020.846863-5-7%-0.051.6811712476%-0.021.65980-3.000000%
PHI15596012%0.811.8211611822%0.342.02747623%0.121.683027-3-9%0.480.991214220%0.210.61505447%0.781.4714114211%0.192.12760-4.000000%
PIT1558681018%0.441.901181311311%0.432.17808556%0.311.772530519%0.140.971316321%0.200.92505224%0.441.27132122-10-8%0.201.8757248.000000%
SD168171-10-12%0.792.1112712811%0.142.158480-4-5%0.131.662630416%0.410.92171814%0.280.767869-9-12%0.651.38141154139%0.311.48870-2.000000%
SEA156864-4-5%0.642.28126123-3-2%0.172.298481-3-4%0.121.642226416%0.360.752017-3-17%0.190.884653715%0.801.51130126-4-3%0.122.1397-2-22.000000%
SF157264-8-11%0.451.89126122-4-4%0.032.128483-1-2%-0.221.672724-3-10%0.030.8015150-2%0.120.845058816%1.091.5011412287%0.181.8597-1-17.000000%
STL1564751117%0.121.7513113432%-0.531.999186-5-5%-0.101.932029944%-0.140.922019-1-6%0.140.894856818%0.971.58128104-24-18%0.171.888808.000000%
TB157867-11-14%0.692.26133122-11-8%0.502.168574-11-13%0.301.652528313%0.430.942319-4-16%0.240.926752-15-23%0.801.331321451310%0.121.90760-3.000000%
TEX156371813%0.812.441121251311%0.412.23747734%0.021.762228627%0.420.731620425%0.240.816759-8-12%0.641.4512813686%0.341.747702.000000%
TOR157870-8-10%1.312.61137124-13-9%0.772.378576-9-11%0.141.552529416%0.570.902719-8-28%0.310.796260-2-3%0.871.54132142108%0.242.01870-8.000000%
WAS146168711%0.072.10126113-13-10%-0.312.158673-13-15%-0.351.802924-5-16%0.460.951116541%0.060.7559701119%0.601.43124121-3-2%0.341.638804.000000%
Team Batter Games DK Points Sim Dif % Dif FD Points Sim Dif % Dif Runs Sim Dif RBIs Sim Dif Hits Sim Dif 1B Sim Dif 2B/3B Sim Dif HR Sim Dif BB Sim Dif K Sim Dif PA Sim Dif SB Sim Dif