Sim Accuracy

Ballpark Pal simulations generate detailed projections of every game. The tables below give insight into how the sims have related to actual results. Differences can be due to randomness or model oversights. Naturally, smaller samples are associated with larger differences. Models are generally left alone, but sometimes tweaked to adjust for clear differences that occur during the season.

Median Dif = the median game-to-game difference.
Abs = the median game-to-game difference, ignoring the direction of the error (absolute value).

Overall
Simulated runs have been 5.4% higher than actual (220 runs over 472 games)
Totals Difference % Dif Median Dif
Actual Sim # % Away Home Median Abs
Runs4,0534,2732205%2%9%0.553.07
Hits7,5697,7661973%1%4%0.283.29
1B5,0335,089561%-1%3%0.112.50
2B/3B1,5871,656694%-1%10%0.371.38
HR9491,021728%16%1%0.241.13
BB3,6013,8802798%6%10%1.322.26
K8,0068,1681622%3%1%0.262.67
Sim is lower than actuals    Sim is higher than actuals
Team Park Games Runs Sim Dif % Dif Med Abs Hits Sim Dif % Dif Med Abs 1B Sim Dif % Dif Med Abs 2B/3B Sim Dif % Dif Med Abs HR Sim Dif % Dif Med Abs BB Sim Dif % Dif Med Abs K Sim Dif % Dif Med Abs
ANAAngel Stadium15154131-23-15%-0.153.52270233-37-14%-0.953.91177151-26-15%-0.673.095445-9-16%0.241.133937-2-6%0.391.37123120-3-2%0.552.0627427841%-0.213.18
BALOriole Park19169179106%1.453.36309327186%1.503.98197215189%0.873.2157721525%0.851.305541-14-26%0.281.181021545251%2.362.76328344165%0.632.72
BOSFenway Park16142140-2-1%0.232.86261273125%-0.123.4917718031%-0.032.4857681119%0.021.552725-2-6%0.071.091101271716%1.802.4728128983%1.032.50
CHAGuaranteed Rate Fld171391581913%1.233.272562842811%0.414.121671841710%0.792.89545959%0.311.133542719%0.561.1112913011%1.152.0928228531%-1.052.44
CLEProgressive Field12110103-7-6%1.723.08204192-12-6%0.853.2612412954%-0.122.244942-7-15%0.201.363121-10-33%0.741.21103101-2-2%1.192.31195182-13-7%0.632.48
KCAKauffman Stadium1613313632%-0.333.29275264-11-4%-0.213.1517717921%0.382.267160-11-16%0.141.182725-2-9%-0.210.9811912455%1.101.902202563616%1.222.85
OAKOakland Coliseum161101372725%0.312.80242257156%0.703.01159169106%0.521.856558-8-12%0.431.4918301268%0.151.01136133-3-2%0.132.1428728921%-0.432.60
TBATropicana Field1714914900%-0.472.98273269-4-1%0.373.36188164-24-13%0.012.4242632151%0.431.604342-1-3%0.081.0511812465%1.402.33294321279%0.823.24
TORRogers Centre151191442521%2.013.3324825021%1.012.83160157-3-2%-0.212.515756-1-1%0.701.693136516%0.431.261081342624%1.152.36251261104%0.682.70
ARIChase Field1615916785%1.203.26272286145%0.933.7817618153%-0.142.82646958%0.331.383236412%0.501.2513914454%1.632.392232684520%0.292.65
CHNWrigley Field13119114-5-4%0.193.1720821242%-0.153.4314114432%-0.132.60444401%0.621.47232413%0.201.101001121212%1.472.09227213-14-6%0.542.37
COLCoors Field131241462218%-0.493.69243255125%-0.773.98173164-9-5%-1.662.9749601122%0.291.3921321151%0.551.0710099-1-1%1.162.06221199-22-10%-0.132.01
LANDodger Stadium16149147-2-1%0.372.3225225311%-0.043.05161159-2-1%0.632.245352-1-3%0.031.373842411%0.321.19137135-2-2%1.122.0928028552%0.562.72
PITPNC Park12851021720%0.352.1918619263%0.792.8012612711%-0.072.423745821%0.191.302320-3-13%0.450.94901011113%1.482.47199211126%1.132.78
MILAmerican Family Fld14139122-17-12%0.543.22234216-18-7%0.712.55160139-21-13%-0.012.164044410%0.841.4934340-1%0.291.18127117-10-8%0.991.90239254156%-0.672.11
SEAT-Mobile Park191171644740%1.052.832402995924%0.423.291581943623%0.372.6348591123%0.151.3034461234%0.481.301161523631%1.762.19384351-33-9%-1.192.50
HOUMinute Maid Park161521722013%0.333.13287277-10-4%-0.713.06184167-17-9%-0.502.7563630-1%0.441.364047717%0.531.13147157107%1.112.19248269218%1.482.40
DETComerica Park1714014443%-0.072.98257273166%0.543.09173183106%0.302.565359612%0.311.433130-1-2%-0.141.111201321210%1.332.04302292-10-3%-0.532.54
SFNOracle Park161161351916%1.402.57250263135%0.382.9517818242%0.452.39515547%0.571.342126523%-0.100.80971303334%1.992.182252563114%0.862.69
CINGreat American BP16151144-7-5%0.382.92255246-9-4%0.943.56164153-11-7%0.512.286053-7-11%0.541.463139826%0.221.0413514497%1.392.23273297249%0.592.67
SDNPetco Park19187169-18-10%0.942.9930730921%0.493.661822072514%0.892.307262-10-13%0.241.275340-13-25%0.261.011311572620%1.672.47327321-6-2%0.582.47
PHICitizens Bank Park16144137-7-5%0.352.42258252-6-2%0.782.18177160-17-9%0.362.1346571124%0.571.52353500%0.231.111081241614%1.172.13303296-7-2%-0.913.08
SLNBusch Stadium129710255%-0.273.3719720253%-1.072.9413714253%-1.152.27384026%-0.011.412220-2-9%0.040.889790-7-7%1.012.16195181-14-7%0.512.76
NYNCiti Field191361592317%1.813.312573014417%1.312.621782052715%0.722.34515548%0.571.3828411347%0.371.20160153-7-4%1.192.02328324-4-1%0.172.81
WASNationals Park12901011112%0.342.52202192-10-5%-0.373.49143129-14-10%-0.983.004441-3-8%0.301.501523850%0.210.99989800%1.322.2418719363%1.642.55
MINTarget Field12889467%0.543.1718218421%-0.322.81115125108%0.591.733937-2-5%0.251.042822-6-21%-0.311.118493911%1.352.04249225-24-9%-0.723.06
NYAYankee Stadium13901213135%1.372.631792183922%1.412.991241532923%1.442.653138721%0.571.202427314%-0.041.281071221514%1.692.30217227104%0.912.33
MIALoanDepot Park20199182-17-9%0.813.09342339-3-1%-0.342.94231227-4-2%-0.612.187771-6-8%0.251.443442823%0.381.09172156-16-9%1.662.91341354134%1.003.05
ATLTruist Park15144142-2-1%-0.372.42266258-8-3%0.223.20184177-7-4%-0.022.915348-5-10%0.351.192933415%-0.101.121071211413%1.452.1624224752%-1.092.46
TEXGlobe Life Field191431773424%-0.463.612753073212%-0.603.311801971710%0.332.31576259%0.051.1638481025%-0.211.231361632720%1.002.10323333103%0.172.64
SDNEstadio Alfredo H.H.22635935%4.198.8638491129%2.497.972725-2-7%0.472.164117184%2.263.35713680%2.793.65161603%1.706.90313214%-4.144.69
SDNGocheok Sky Dome23320-13-38%-6.329.104435-9-20%-4.4210.723522-13-38%-6.676.6778117%0.772.81253166%1.661.662917-12-43%-4.234.233038826%3.863.86
Team Games Runs Sim Dif % Dif Med Abs Hits Sim Dif % Dif Med Abs 1B Sim Dif % Dif Med Abs 2B/3B Sim Dif % Dif Med Abs HR Sim Dif % Dif Med Abs BB Sim Dif % Dif Med Abs K Sim Dif % Dif Med Abs Wins Sim Dif % Dif
ARI32161159-2-1%0.391.89271286155%0.292.21179193148%0.331.836261-1-2%0.160.98303339%0.170.90138136-2-1%0.571.39234251177%0.131.641415.91.9+13%
ATL29156146-10-7%-0.331.88270253-17-6%-0.522.16168165-3-2%0.131.767351-22-30%-0.040.932937829%0.000.7011412066%0.911.30259233-26-10%0.001.942016.4-3.6-18%
BAL31163142-21-13%-0.072.42267266-10%0.132.381611771610%0.281.755857-1-2%-0.020.924833-15-32%0.250.93961172121%0.901.55256271156%0.081.902016.0-4.0-19%
BOS32150138-12-8%0.322.36272262-10-4%0.092.21173172-1-1%0.321.896360-3-5%0.141.013630-6-17%0.190.79134127-7-5%1.001.57314289-25-8%-0.021.771816.1-1.9-10%
CHC32156139-17-11%0.292.0724925894%-0.192.05161171106%-0.041.6857570-1%0.510.98313100%0.090.82137134-3-2%0.871.59280278-2-1%-0.171.841915.5-3.5-18%
CHW31881213338%1.022.102132463315%0.362.641431642114%0.461.914853510%0.390.902230835%0.230.8691100910%1.051.39264279156%0.282.14612.66.6+110%
CIN31147141-6-4%0.192.122182402210%0.102.121291522318%0.071.705752-5-8%0.480.983235311%0.210.721221452319%0.561.58306286-20-7%0.042.101616.4.4+2%
CLE31155131-24-15%0.641.9826126431%0.442.26170182127%0.231.886157-4-7%0.210.943025-5-15%0.150.79133107-26-20%0.701.65235229-6-2%1.031.832014.1-5.9-29%
COL311171473026%0.882.13247268219%0.252.19168165-3-2%0.141.885564916%0.351.0324391563%0.380.8110610822%0.691.22314298-16-5%-0.331.78712.05.0+71%
DET311231381512%0.602.18237255188%0.752.10158170128%0.521.64515435%0.450.922831311%0.150.8611712587%0.801.66280270-10-4%-0.342.081816.7-1.3-7%
HOU311411702920%0.412.65287282-5-2%-0.022.47196172-24-12%-0.151.8654641019%0.140.893746924%0.260.821101342422%0.471.472032292613%0.581.691116.85.8+52%
KC31143142-1-1%0.792.31246265198%0.692.441601791912%0.191.77545736%0.330.833229-3-10%0.210.871031232019%1.051.362132412813%0.151.981816.4-1.6-8%
LAA3112913565%0.592.03257240-17-6%-0.142.07178150-28-16%-0.111.514553818%0.400.64343739%0.180.681041272322%0.841.35285305207%0.292.021114.73.7+33%
LAD33177169-8-5%-0.312.28310282-28-9%-0.262.05197177-20-10%0.011.777562-13-18%-0.070.833844615%0.240.73158150-8-5%0.121.4927928121%0.051.922019.6-.4-1%
MIA331181402219%1.002.082472803313%0.112.02182195137%-0.361.7941531230%0.530.852431731%0.140.84951101516%1.261.73245263187%0.382.04915.16.1+67%
MIL30156122-34-22%0.552.25270229-41-15%0.312.07178151-27-15%-0.131.485449-5-9%0.490.803829-9-23%0.280.89131123-8-6%0.581.44273272-10%0.121.821914.0-5.0-26%
MIN30142128-14-10%0.302.25242234-8-3%0.382.30143154118%0.381.796749-18-27%0.310.933231-1-3%0.040.91127125-2-1%0.351.24279274-5-2%-0.531.811715.4-1.6-9%
NYM31135131-4-3%0.602.3724924900%0.732.51173167-6-4%0.581.84444736%0.570.963235310%0.130.88122115-7-6%0.671.372332633013%0.311.991615.1-.9-5%
NYY331541721812%0.842.20268280124%0.682.37183180-3-1%0.511.7444591533%0.560.81414100%0.090.881511762516%0.821.732572943714%0.711.992017.7-2.3-11%
OAK32931263335%1.022.022142432913%0.801.991341612720%0.321.404352920%0.540.773730-7-18%0.070.861111251413%0.681.5630931562%0.132.101513.5-1.5-9%
PHI32147145-2-1%0.311.91272256-16-6%0.102.03186164-22-12%-0.111.624655919%0.100.844037-3-7%0.180.75125136119%0.581.4427427510%-0.242.232118.2-2.8-13%
PIT321161432723%1.002.2824725694%0.702.21179171-8-4%0.091.904453922%0.350.842432833%0.200.9014214975%0.971.6730030000%0.301.921416.32.3+16%
SD34162157-5-3%1.022.25282292104%0.372.2719320295%0.411.55555723%0.320.853433-1-3%0.160.88125136119%0.431.49255254-10%0.431.851617.31.3+8%
SEA311101423229%0.541.78220241219%0.212.24153149-4-2%-0.121.6436511542%0.260.773140930%0.290.691151382320%0.751.53323302-21-6%-0.671.841716.4-.6-3%
SF321191452622%0.702.11249265167%0.442.5017117542%0.101.5449591020%0.580.882932311%0.190.811061373129%0.791.462522802811%0.351.851517.42.4+15%
STL311081362826%0.862.082212533215%0.312.171491702114%0.051.65515324%0.130.772130945%0.120.9112613043%0.481.52266265-1-1%0.311.831414.8.8+5%
TB321191452622%0.002.1625726473%-0.022.26189169-20-11%-0.071.7242581638%0.380.8926371141%0.180.831031232020%0.821.45290275-15-5%0.212.161416.92.9+20%
TEX3214514832%0.092.29268255-13-5%-0.302.04179162-17-10%-0.231.605554-1-2%-0.060.853439515%0.100.831151402522%0.731.522472823514%0.421.811716.0-1.0-5%
TOR311071514441%0.801.892252613616%0.382.231451702517%-0.041.83525648%0.230.942835724%0.190.801231442117%0.721.57234249157%0.281.821516.11.1+7%
WAS3111612265%0.451.7423324073%0.121.8215516164%0.021.52515100%0.420.98272812%0.140.83121118-3-3%0.621.39247267208%0.411.711513.0-2.0-13%
Team Games Runs Sim Dif % Dif Med Abs Hits Sim Dif % Dif Med Abs 1B Sim Dif % Dif Med Abs 2B/3B Sim Dif % Dif Med Abs HR Sim Dif % Dif Med Abs BB Sim Dif % Dif Med Abs K Sim Dif % Dif Med Abs Wins Sim Dif % Dif
ARI321421611913%0.752.29263283208%0.542.60166180148%0.521.87656723%0.231.023237515%0.200.811141331917%0.781.51248265177%0.032.041816-1-10.000000%
ATL291091271817%0.451.92227238115%0.532.14169160-9-5%0.121.5432471547%0.580.842631518%0.190.93931152224%0.601.462442773314%-0.311.95912340.000000%
BAL311211401916%0.882.19241259188%0.692.62156170149%0.191.9749601122%0.440.953630-6-17%0.160.75911283740%0.951.4627727700%-0.081.991115437.000000%
BOS321111382724%0.182.002362642812%-0.022.0417217311%0.101.7040622256%0.150.952428417%0.150.811001292929%0.881.70274294207%0.041.901415114.000000%
CHC3214214310%0.802.1625526162%0.251.9517117543%0.091.5554540-1%0.430.86303226%0.360.851241381411%0.741.3826927783%0.311.921316327.000000%
CHW31169151-18-11%0.232.05271262-9-3%0.062.4517217200%0.251.845654-2-3%0.530.744335-8-18%0.220.71143139-4-3%0.431.59249239-10-4%-0.371.952518-6-26.000000%
CIN3113013111%0.102.04241234-7-3%0.061.86158149-9-5%0.011.655248-4-7%0.200.933136517%0.160.881161311513%0.521.43269290218%0.591.8415140-3.000000%
CLE311151453026%0.752.1824324852%0.182.11149159107%0.131.626655-11-17%0.240.912834623%0.260.941211452420%0.571.45299267-32-11%0.512.001116554.000000%
COL31190186-4-2%0.282.25314309-5-2%-0.182.26229200-29-13%-0.591.7850702040%0.391.023540513%0.160.8013213975%0.291.3019519942%0.241.772419-5-21.000000%
DET3111712698%0.302.09225244198%0.642.3416016111%0.531.6535531852%0.480.8430300-1%0.040.871021121010%0.751.3527327631%-0.101.871314110.000000%
HOU3115415511%0.791.98268254-14-5%0.022.19184158-26-14%-0.301.96545624%0.490.7730401035%0.290.7914615375%0.821.65262276145%0.241.942014-5-29.000000%
KC31961343839%0.062.0824425394%0.042.2416516832%0.491.77565600%0.140.962329625%0.080.84113124119%0.771.60234253198%0.302.071314113.000000%
LAA31169144-25-15%0.012.23256252-4-1%-0.102.24166162-4-2%0.091.58545400%0.370.8936360-1%0.190.86144132-12-8%0.061.4026527273%0.031.982016-3-18.000000%
LAD33127138118%0.862.35233254219%0.522.09153166138%0.351.874853510%0.410.823236411%0.230.8713213311%0.851.42281307269%0.531.98131303.000000%
MIA33178157-21-12%0.401.99293279-14-5%0.051.9918218863%0.311.487956-23-29%-0.090.933235310%0.170.87163149-14-9%0.841.5529230193%0.161.962417-6-25.000000%
MIL3013213200%0.802.03244242-2-1%0.942.09174162-12-7%0.341.6935471235%0.610.773533-2-6%0.150.8212312300%0.861.692432672410%0.201.691116546.000000%
MIN30128123-5-4%0.611.98247240-7-3%0.322.02162158-4-3%0.061.63475149%0.450.843831-7-18%0.060.79931031011%0.721.39291282-9-3%0.051.851314113.000000%
NYM3112713697%0.412.242192482913%0.121.971511661510%0.071.385049-1-2%0.350.7518331583%0.230.80156137-19-12%0.631.56292266-26-9%0.122.03151506.000000%
NYY331141574338%1.182.212372774017%0.662.201511843322%0.361.84565600%0.310.823038827%0.310.821341471310%1.091.5828228310%-0.051.851315218.000000%
OAK321301491914%-0.492.19256272166%-0.592.461611872616%0.021.846956-13-19%-0.181.032629312%0.010.84131142119%0.031.69257253-4-2%-0.041.70171819.000000%
PHI3211912565%0.812.04235245104%0.242.2215916011%0.091.684853511%0.460.982832413%0.210.611021121010%0.791.4930330300%0.222.101113226.000000%
PIT3213013776%0.411.90245265208%0.442.041571761912%0.371.76545959%0.160.983430-4-10%0.160.90124117-7-5%0.411.26275259-16-6%0.111.871815-2-13.000000%
SD34162155-7-4%0.772.0827427400%0.032.1517417511%0.131.68595901%0.410.934140-1-3%0.270.75133144118%0.651.452833153211%0.441.481816-1-7.000000%
SEA311011343332%0.802.282112554421%0.442.381351693425%0.201.704651511%0.360.763035517%0.210.91891092022%0.851.51291265-26-9%-0.142.09141404.000000%
SF32144131-13-9%0.461.92270257-13-5%0.032.14181176-5-3%-0.171.706152-9-15%-0.010.81282914%0.150.841101211110%1.081.53244267239%0.231.951714-2-14.000000%
STL3113814243%0.201.8326726811%-0.382.0017717921%-0.041.87525648%-0.140.933833-5-12%0.120.8810311187%0.971.58260228-32-12%0.142.0017160-5.000000%
TB32160136-24-15%0.462.24279252-27-10%0.462.21186157-29-16%0.141.67515548%0.410.884240-2-5%0.210.90115112-3-3%0.861.34279301228%0.021.691815-2-16.000000%
TEX321261502419%0.822.472192614219%0.472.321411652417%0.371.7446561021%0.450.723240825%0.250.8213113654%0.631.44281279-2-1%0.211.75151617.000000%
TOR3113914453%1.262.56267258-9-3%0.772.39169164-5-3%0.251.56575811%0.480.914137-4-10%0.310.781141261211%1.041.552462823614%0.341.991614-1-7.000000%
WAS311331471410%0.122.10289258-31-11%-0.362.28203171-32-16%-0.381.796653-13-20%0.350.9620331367%0.100.771091413229%0.771.4824824910%0.281.611618213.000000%
Team Batter Games DK Points Sim Dif % Dif FD Points Sim Dif % Dif Runs Sim Dif RBIs Sim Dif Hits Sim Dif 1B Sim Dif 2B/3B Sim Dif HR Sim Dif BB Sim Dif K Sim Dif PA Sim Dif SB Sim Dif